Spain edges France as the narrowest favorite in the 2026 World Cup market thanks to Euro 2024 success, a balanced squad blending experience with emerging talents like Lamine Yamal and Pedri, and consistent results in recent internationals. France sits close behind with unmatched attacking depth around Kylian Mbappé and strong tournament pedigree in multiple recent finals. England follows as a competitive third option under Thomas Tuchel, backed by squad quality and recent European Championship runs. Argentina, Portugal, and Brazil remain tightly grouped on the strength of defending-champion pedigree, star power, and South American qualifying form, while Germany and the Netherlands add further depth to a crowded European contingent. The bunched probabilities reflect how similar squad strengths, recent major-tournament experience, and the expanded 48-team format keep outcomes highly contested heading into group stage openers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於西班牙 17.0%
法國 16.1%
英格蘭 10.8%
葡萄牙 10.8%
$1,948,654,685 交易量
$1,948,654,685 交易量

西班牙
17%

法國
16%

英格蘭
11%

葡萄牙
11%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
8%

德國
5%

荷蘭
4%

挪威
2%

比利時
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

日本
2%

摩洛哥
2%

墨西哥
1%

瑞士
1%

土耳其
1%

美國
1%

烏拉圭
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

厄瓜多
1%

塞內加爾
1%

象牙海岸
<1%

奧地利
<1%

加拿大
<1%

瑞典
<1%

南韓
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

埃及
<1%

伊朗
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

捷克
<1%

澳洲
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

南非
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
西班牙 17.0%
法國 16.1%
英格蘭 10.8%
葡萄牙 10.8%
$1,948,654,685 交易量
$1,948,654,685 交易量

西班牙
17%

法國
16%

英格蘭
11%

葡萄牙
11%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
8%

德國
5%

荷蘭
4%

挪威
2%

比利時
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

日本
2%

摩洛哥
2%

墨西哥
1%

瑞士
1%

土耳其
1%

美國
1%

烏拉圭
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

厄瓜多
1%

塞內加爾
1%

象牙海岸
<1%

奧地利
<1%

加拿大
<1%

瑞典
<1%

南韓
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

埃及
<1%

伊朗
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

捷克
<1%

澳洲
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

南非
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain edges France as the narrowest favorite in the 2026 World Cup market thanks to Euro 2024 success, a balanced squad blending experience with emerging talents like Lamine Yamal and Pedri, and consistent results in recent internationals. France sits close behind with unmatched attacking depth around Kylian Mbappé and strong tournament pedigree in multiple recent finals. England follows as a competitive third option under Thomas Tuchel, backed by squad quality and recent European Championship runs. Argentina, Portugal, and Brazil remain tightly grouped on the strength of defending-champion pedigree, star power, and South American qualifying form, while Germany and the Netherlands add further depth to a crowded European contingent. The bunched probabilities reflect how similar squad strengths, recent major-tournament experience, and the expanded 48-team format keep outcomes highly contested heading into group stage openers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions