Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and ground-based surveys has identified no near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 100-kiloton impact (roughly 20–30 meters in diameter) on a collision trajectory for the remainder of 2026. Current orbital catalogs and automated detection systems place the annual probability of an undetected impactor of this size well below 1 percent, consistent with historical rates of roughly one event per several decades. Trader consensus reflects this low baseline risk plus the absence of any recent discoveries or orbital updates that would elevate the chance of an impact before year-end. While an extremely faint, long-period comet on a direct path could theoretically evade detection until late in its approach, such an object would require improbable alignment with observational gaps and would likely trigger rapid follow-up observations if it neared detectable brightness.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
是
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and ground-based surveys has identified no near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 100-kiloton impact (roughly 20–30 meters in diameter) on a collision trajectory for the remainder of 2026. Current orbital catalogs and automated detection systems place the annual probability of an undetected impactor of this size well below 1 percent, consistent with historical rates of roughly one event per several decades. Trader consensus reflects this low baseline risk plus the absence of any recent discoveries or orbital updates that would elevate the chance of an impact before year-end. While an extremely faint, long-period comet on a direct path could theoretically evade detection until late in its approach, such an object would require improbable alignment with observational gaps and would likely trigger rapid follow-up observations if it neared detectable brightness.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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