The overwhelming 99.2% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflect the U.S. Geological Survey's established assessment that no fault long enough to generate such an event exists on Earth. Magnitude scales with rupture length and slip, and the record maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960 along a roughly 1,000-mile Chilean subduction zone; theoretical M10 events would require planetary-scale faults that do not occur. Ongoing USGS seismic monitoring and global networks confirm no precursors or tectonic conditions approaching this threshold in the brief remaining window. While hypothetical revisions to magnitude scaling relations or entirely unforeseen fault behavior could theoretically alter outcomes, current observational data and physical constraints render such shifts highly improbable before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$789,825 交易量
$789,825 交易量
是
$789,825 交易量
$789,825 交易量
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The overwhelming 99.2% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflect the U.S. Geological Survey's established assessment that no fault long enough to generate such an event exists on Earth. Magnitude scales with rupture length and slip, and the record maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960 along a roughly 1,000-mile Chilean subduction zone; theoretical M10 events would require planetary-scale faults that do not occur. Ongoing USGS seismic monitoring and global networks confirm no precursors or tectonic conditions approaching this threshold in the brief remaining window. While hypothetical revisions to magnitude scaling relations or entirely unforeseen fault behavior could theoretically alter outcomes, current observational data and physical constraints render such shifts highly improbable before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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