The near-certain trader consensus against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the extreme energy release required, which far exceeds the physical limits of known fault systems and the 9.5 moment-magnitude record set by the 1960 Valdivia event. USGS global monitoring shows no earthquake has approached 10.0 in the instrumental era, as plate boundaries lack sufficient rupture length and slip to generate such forces in the short remaining window. Current seismic catalogs and moment-tensor data confirm typical maximum magnitudes cluster well below this threshold, with no recent foreshock sequences or strain accumulation patterns suggesting an outlier event. While rare theoretical scenarios involving perfect multi-segment rupture could theoretically shift odds, they remain statistically negligible given historical frequency and ongoing monitoring.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
<1% 概率
$791,365 交易量
$791,365 交易量
2026-12-31
是
<1% 概率
$791,365 交易量
$791,365 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain trader consensus against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the extreme energy release required, which far exceeds the physical limits of known fault systems and the 9.5 moment-magnitude record set by the 1960 Valdivia event. USGS global monitoring shows no earthquake has approached 10.0 in the instrumental era, as plate boundaries lack sufficient rupture length and slip to generate such forces in the short remaining window. Current seismic catalogs and moment-tensor data confirm typical maximum magnitudes cluster well below this threshold, with no recent foreshock sequences or strain accumulation patterns suggesting an outlier event. While rare theoretical scenarios involving perfect multi-segment rupture could theoretically shift odds, they remain statistically negligible given historical frequency and ongoing monitoring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$791,365结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain trader consensus against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the extreme energy release required, which far exceeds the physical limits of known fault systems and the 9.5 moment-magnitude record set by the 1960 Valdivia event. USGS global monitoring shows no earthquake has approached 10.0 in the instrumental era, as plate boundaries lack sufficient rupture length and slip to generate such forces in the short remaining window. Current seismic catalogs and moment-tensor data confirm typical maximum magnitudes cluster well below this threshold, with no recent foreshock sequences or strain accumulation patterns suggesting an outlier event. While rare theoretical scenarios involving perfect multi-segment rupture could theoretically shift odds, they remain statistically negligible given historical frequency and ongoing monitoring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$791,365结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the extreme energy release required, which far exceeds the physical limits of known fault systems and the 9.5 moment-magnitude record set by the 1960 Valdivia event. USGS global monitoring shows no earthquake has approached 10.0 in the instrumental era, as plate boundaries lack sufficient rupture length and slip to generate such forces in the short remaining window. Current seismic catalogs and moment-tensor data confirm typical maximum magnitudes cluster well below this threshold, with no recent foreshock sequences or strain accumulation patterns suggesting an outlier event. While rare theoretical scenarios involving perfect multi-segment rupture could theoretically shift odds, they remain statistically negligible given historical frequency and ongoing monitoring.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题