Geophysical constraints on fault rupture lengths and seismic moment release make a magnitude 10.0 earthquake physically implausible on Earth, as confirmed by USGS records and plate-tectonic models showing no subduction zone or fault system extends far enough for the required energy. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia event of 1960, with subsequent great quakes like the 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3) and 2011 Tohoku (9.0–9.1) falling well short. With only months remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution and global monitoring showing only moderate activity well below threshold levels, trader consensus reflects this near-certainty of “No.” The primary uncertainty lies in potential revisions to existing measurements or entirely unforeseen tectonic linkages, though neither aligns with current data or short-term forecasts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
1% 概率
$817,362 交易量
$817,362 交易量
2027-01-31
是
1% 概率
$817,362 交易量
$817,362 交易量
2027-01-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Geophysical constraints on fault rupture lengths and seismic moment release make a magnitude 10.0 earthquake physically implausible on Earth, as confirmed by USGS records and plate-tectonic models showing no subduction zone or fault system extends far enough for the required energy. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia event of 1960, with subsequent great quakes like the 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3) and 2011 Tohoku (9.0–9.1) falling well short. With only months remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution and global monitoring showing only moderate activity well below threshold levels, trader consensus reflects this near-certainty of “No.” The primary uncertainty lies in potential revisions to existing measurements or entirely unforeseen tectonic linkages, though neither aligns with current data or short-term forecasts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$817,362结束日期
2027-02-01市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Geophysical constraints on fault rupture lengths and seismic moment release make a magnitude 10.0 earthquake physically implausible on Earth, as confirmed by USGS records and plate-tectonic models showing no subduction zone or fault system extends far enough for the required energy. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia event of 1960, with subsequent great quakes like the 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3) and 2011 Tohoku (9.0–9.1) falling well short. With only months remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution and global monitoring showing only moderate activity well below threshold levels, trader consensus reflects this near-certainty of “No.” The primary uncertainty lies in potential revisions to existing measurements or entirely unforeseen tectonic linkages, though neither aligns with current data or short-term forecasts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$817,362结束日期
2027-02-01市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETGeophysical constraints on fault rupture lengths and seismic moment release make a magnitude 10.0 earthquake physically implausible on Earth, as confirmed by USGS records and plate-tectonic models showing no subduction zone or fault system extends far enough for the required energy. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia event of 1960, with subsequent great quakes like the 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3) and 2011 Tohoku (9.0–9.1) falling well short. With only months remaining before the December 31, 2026 resolution and global monitoring showing only moderate activity well below threshold levels, trader consensus reflects this near-certainty of “No.” The primary uncertainty lies in potential revisions to existing measurements or entirely unforeseen tectonic linkages, though neither aligns with current data or short-term forecasts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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