**No at 98.8% reflects the scientific consensus that a magnitude 10.0 earthquake is physically impossible on Earth within the remaining months of 2026.** USGS analysis shows earthquake magnitude scales with fault rupture length; producing a 10.0 would require a continuous fault spanning thousands of kilometers across most of the planet, a structure that does not exist. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile event of 1960 on a roughly 1,000 km subduction zone segment, with all subsequent great quakes (including 2026’s peak of 7.8) falling well below this threshold. Plate boundary segmentation and the limited width of the seismogenic zone cap realistic maximums near 9.5–9.7. While model revisions or an unprecedented multi-segment rupture could theoretically alter assessments, no such event has occurred in the instrumental record, and current seismic monitoring shows no conditions approaching that scale before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
1% 概率
$816,454 交易量
$816,454 交易量
2026-12-31
是
1% 概率
$816,454 交易量
$816,454 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No at 98.8% reflects the scientific consensus that a magnitude 10.0 earthquake is physically impossible on Earth within the remaining months of 2026.** USGS analysis shows earthquake magnitude scales with fault rupture length; producing a 10.0 would require a continuous fault spanning thousands of kilometers across most of the planet, a structure that does not exist. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile event of 1960 on a roughly 1,000 km subduction zone segment, with all subsequent great quakes (including 2026’s peak of 7.8) falling well below this threshold. Plate boundary segmentation and the limited width of the seismogenic zone cap realistic maximums near 9.5–9.7. While model revisions or an unprecedented multi-segment rupture could theoretically alter assessments, no such event has occurred in the instrumental record, and current seismic monitoring shows no conditions approaching that scale before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$816,454结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No at 98.8% reflects the scientific consensus that a magnitude 10.0 earthquake is physically impossible on Earth within the remaining months of 2026.** USGS analysis shows earthquake magnitude scales with fault rupture length; producing a 10.0 would require a continuous fault spanning thousands of kilometers across most of the planet, a structure that does not exist. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile event of 1960 on a roughly 1,000 km subduction zone segment, with all subsequent great quakes (including 2026’s peak of 7.8) falling well below this threshold. Plate boundary segmentation and the limited width of the seismogenic zone cap realistic maximums near 9.5–9.7. While model revisions or an unprecedented multi-segment rupture could theoretically alter assessments, no such event has occurred in the instrumental record, and current seismic monitoring shows no conditions approaching that scale before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$816,454结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET**No at 98.8% reflects the scientific consensus that a magnitude 10.0 earthquake is physically impossible on Earth within the remaining months of 2026.** USGS analysis shows earthquake magnitude scales with fault rupture length; producing a 10.0 would require a continuous fault spanning thousands of kilometers across most of the planet, a structure that does not exist. The historical maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia, Chile event of 1960 on a roughly 1,000 km subduction zone segment, with all subsequent great quakes (including 2026’s peak of 7.8) falling well below this threshold. Plate boundary segmentation and the limited width of the seismogenic zone cap realistic maximums near 9.5–9.7. While model revisions or an unprecedented multi-segment rupture could theoretically alter assessments, no such event has occurred in the instrumental record, and current seismic monitoring shows no conditions approaching that scale before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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