Preliminary squad submissions and updated injury trackers over the past week have traders viewing the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a wide-open contest, with France's 17.9% implied probability narrowly ahead of Spain at 16.4% amid deep rosters and favorable Group I (Senegal, Iraq, Norway) despite Hugo Ekitiké's Achilles absence. Spain's momentum from Euro 2024 and Olympic triumphs holds firm in Group H (Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay), though Lamine Yamal's hamstring recovery looms large. England sits third at 11.5% under Thomas Tuchel's rebuild against Croatia, Ghana, Panama, while Brazil (9.2%) and defending champion Argentina (8.6%) fade on multiple blows—Rodrygo, Estêvão, Militão out for Brazil; Romero doubtful for Argentina—highlighting injury vulnerabilities in otherwise balanced paths through the expanded 48-team group stage and knockouts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于法国 17.9%
西班牙 16.4%
英格兰 11.5%
巴西 9.2%
$971,127,164 交易量
$971,127,164 交易量
法国
18%
西班牙
16%
英格兰
11%
巴西
9%
阿根廷
9%
葡萄牙
8%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
2%
日本
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
瑞士
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
土耳其
1%
Austria
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
捷克
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
波黑
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
法国 17.9%
西班牙 16.4%
英格兰 11.5%
巴西 9.2%
$971,127,164 交易量
$971,127,164 交易量
法国
18%
西班牙
16%
英格兰
11%
巴西
9%
阿根廷
9%
葡萄牙
8%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
2%
日本
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
瑞士
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
土耳其
1%
Austria
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
捷克
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
波黑
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Preliminary squad submissions and updated injury trackers over the past week have traders viewing the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a wide-open contest, with France's 17.9% implied probability narrowly ahead of Spain at 16.4% amid deep rosters and favorable Group I (Senegal, Iraq, Norway) despite Hugo Ekitiké's Achilles absence. Spain's momentum from Euro 2024 and Olympic triumphs holds firm in Group H (Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay), though Lamine Yamal's hamstring recovery looms large. England sits third at 11.5% under Thomas Tuchel's rebuild against Croatia, Ghana, Panama, while Brazil (9.2%) and defending champion Argentina (8.6%) fade on multiple blows—Rodrygo, Estêvão, Militão out for Brazil; Romero doubtful for Argentina—highlighting injury vulnerabilities in otherwise balanced paths through the expanded 48-team group stage and knockouts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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