Trader consensus pins France at an 18.1% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, edged ahead by their FIFA rankings lead, Kylian Mbappé's captaincy and scoring form, and a favorable group draw with Norway, Senegal, and Iraq after topping UEFA qualifiers. Spain sits close at 16.4%, buoyed by Euro 2024 success, Lamine Yamal's emergence, and Rodri's midfield control in a winnable group alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. England (11.5%), Brazil (9.2%), Argentina (8.6%), and Portugal (8.1%) cluster tightly, reflecting parity from dominant qualifying campaigns—Argentina and Ecuador topping CONMEBOL, Brazil rebounding despite a fifth-place finish—and Lionel Messi's recent comments rating France, Spain, Brazil, and Portugal ahead of his defending champions amid the expanded 48-team field's depth and knockout volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于法国 18.1%
西班牙 16.4%
英格兰 11.5%
巴西 9.2%
$968,767,725 交易量
$968,767,725 交易量
法国
18%
西班牙
16%
英格兰
11%
巴西
9%
阿根廷
9%
葡萄牙
8%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
2%
日本
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
瑞士
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
土耳其
1%
Austria
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
捷克
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
波黑
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
法国 18.1%
西班牙 16.4%
英格兰 11.5%
巴西 9.2%
$968,767,725 交易量
$968,767,725 交易量
法国
18%
西班牙
16%
英格兰
11%
巴西
9%
阿根廷
9%
葡萄牙
8%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
2%
日本
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
瑞士
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
土耳其
1%
Austria
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
捷克
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
波黑
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus pins France at an 18.1% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, edged ahead by their FIFA rankings lead, Kylian Mbappé's captaincy and scoring form, and a favorable group draw with Norway, Senegal, and Iraq after topping UEFA qualifiers. Spain sits close at 16.4%, buoyed by Euro 2024 success, Lamine Yamal's emergence, and Rodri's midfield control in a winnable group alongside Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. England (11.5%), Brazil (9.2%), Argentina (8.6%), and Portugal (8.1%) cluster tightly, reflecting parity from dominant qualifying campaigns—Argentina and Ecuador topping CONMEBOL, Brazil rebounding despite a fifth-place finish—and Lionel Messi's recent comments rating France, Spain, Brazil, and Portugal ahead of his defending champions amid the expanded 48-team field's depth and knockout volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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