Recent generic ballot polling showing a Democratic lead of roughly 5-8 points has shaped trader consensus around modest to solid Democratic margins in the national House popular vote. Midterm dynamics against the president's party, combined with low presidential approval and voter concerns over economic pressures and foreign policy developments, have reinforced expectations of a swing toward Democrats. Redistricting gains secured by Republicans in key states provide a structural offset, contributing to elevated pricing on "Other" outcomes that encompass narrower margins or alternative results. Upcoming campaign events and further polling releases within the next several weeks remain key variables that could shift these implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于民主党 8-10% 27%
民主党 10-12% 22%
民主党 6-8% 18%
民主党4-6% 11%
$139,600 交易量
$139,600 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党16%+
1%
民主党14-16%
1%
民主党 12-14%
7%
民主党 10-12%
22%
民主党 8-10%
27%
民主党 6-8%
18%
民主党4-6%
11%
民主党2-4%
6%
民主党 0-2%
2%
共和党 0-2%
6%
共和党领先2-4%
3%
共和党4-6%
1%
共和党 6%+
1%
民主党 8-10% 27%
民主党 10-12% 22%
民主党 6-8% 18%
民主党4-6% 11%
$139,600 交易量
$139,600 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党16%+
$3,786 交易量
1%
民主党14-16%
$3,593 交易量
1%
民主党 12-14%
$4,873 交易量
7%
民主党 10-12%
$9,185 交易量
22%
民主党 8-10%
$14,518 交易量
27%
民主党 6-8%
$15,896 交易量
18%
民主党4-6%
$7,080 交易量
11%
民主党2-4%
$16,407 交易量
6%
民主党 0-2%
$20,082 交易量
2%
共和党 0-2%
$6,001 交易量
6%
共和党领先2-4%
$30,429 交易量
3%
共和党4-6%
$3,768 交易量
1%
共和党 6%+
$3,982 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling showing a Democratic lead of roughly 5-8 points has shaped trader consensus around modest to solid Democratic margins in the national House popular vote. Midterm dynamics against the president's party, combined with low presidential approval and voter concerns over economic pressures and foreign policy developments, have reinforced expectations of a swing toward Democrats. Redistricting gains secured by Republicans in key states provide a structural offset, contributing to elevated pricing on "Other" outcomes that encompass narrower margins or alternative results. Upcoming campaign events and further polling releases within the next several weeks remain key variables that could shift these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
市场开放时间： Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$139,600结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polling showing a Democratic lead of roughly 5-8 points has shaped trader consensus around modest to solid Democratic margins in the national House popular vote. Midterm dynamics against the president's party, combined with low presidential approval and voter concerns over economic pressures and foreign policy developments, have reinforced expectations of a swing toward Democrats. Redistricting gains secured by Republicans in key states provide a structural offset, contributing to elevated pricing on "Other" outcomes that encompass narrower margins or alternative results. Upcoming campaign events and further polling releases within the next several weeks remain key variables that could shift these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
交易量
$139,600结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRecent generic ballot polling showing a Democratic lead of roughly 5-8 points has shaped trader consensus around modest to solid Democratic margins in the national House popular vote. Midterm dynamics against the president's party, combined with low presidential approval and voter concerns over economic pressures and foreign policy developments, have reinforced expectations of a swing toward Democrats. Redistricting gains secured by Republicans in key states provide a structural offset, contributing to elevated pricing on "Other" outcomes that encompass narrower margins or alternative results. Upcoming campaign events and further polling releases within the next several weeks remain key variables that could shift these implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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