Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 94.3% for a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of these megathrust events, which rupture over 1,000 km of subduction zones and occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years based on USGS historical catalogs—none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. In 2026, seismic activity remains below average, with the largest quakes at M7.5 near Tonga (March) and M7.4s off Indonesia and Japan (April), per USGS reports, showing no anomalous foreshocks or strain acceleration in high-risk zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench. Realistic challenges include undetected slow-slip events triggering sudden rupture, though USGS real-time global monitoring provides no such signals; resolution nears end-2026 with continuous updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$191,437 交易量
$191,437 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$191,437 交易量
$191,437 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 94.3% for a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of these megathrust events, which rupture over 1,000 km of subduction zones and occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years based on USGS historical catalogs—none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. In 2026, seismic activity remains below average, with the largest quakes at M7.5 near Tonga (March) and M7.4s off Indonesia and Japan (April), per USGS reports, showing no anomalous foreshocks or strain acceleration in high-risk zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench. Realistic challenges include undetected slow-slip events triggering sudden rupture, though USGS real-time global monitoring provides no such signals; resolution nears end-2026 with continuous updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$191,437结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 94.3% for a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of these megathrust events, which rupture over 1,000 km of subduction zones and occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years based on USGS historical catalogs—none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. In 2026, seismic activity remains below average, with the largest quakes at M7.5 near Tonga (March) and M7.4s off Indonesia and Japan (April), per USGS reports, showing no anomalous foreshocks or strain acceleration in high-risk zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench. Realistic challenges include undetected slow-slip events triggering sudden rupture, though USGS real-time global monitoring provides no such signals; resolution nears end-2026 with continuous updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$191,437结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 94.3% for a magnitude 9.0+ earthquake before 2027, driven by the extreme rarity of these megathrust events, which rupture over 1,000 km of subduction zones and occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years based on USGS historical catalogs—none since the 2011 Tohoku M9.1. In 2026, seismic activity remains below average, with the largest quakes at M7.5 near Tonga (March) and M7.4s off Indonesia and Japan (April), per USGS reports, showing no anomalous foreshocks or strain acceleration in high-risk zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench. Realistic challenges include undetected slow-slip events triggering sudden rupture, though USGS real-time global monitoring provides no such signals; resolution nears end-2026 with continuous updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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