The near-certain trader consensus against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the exceptional rarity of these events, with only five recorded globally since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku quake. USGS data show M9+ earthquakes occur roughly once every 20–50 years on average, requiring simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zone megathrusts. Recent activity remains limited to an 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025 and several M7–8 quakes in 2026, with no precursors or model runs from monitoring agencies indicating imminent escalation in high-strain regions such as the Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Continuous USGS and international seismic surveillance will track any developments through year-end, though short-term forecasting carries inherent uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
$328,508 交易量
$328,508 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 概率
$328,508 交易量
$328,508 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain trader consensus against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the exceptional rarity of these events, with only five recorded globally since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku quake. USGS data show M9+ earthquakes occur roughly once every 20–50 years on average, requiring simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zone megathrusts. Recent activity remains limited to an 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025 and several M7–8 quakes in 2026, with no precursors or model runs from monitoring agencies indicating imminent escalation in high-strain regions such as the Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Continuous USGS and international seismic surveillance will track any developments through year-end, though short-term forecasting carries inherent uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$328,508结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The near-certain trader consensus against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the exceptional rarity of these events, with only five recorded globally since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku quake. USGS data show M9+ earthquakes occur roughly once every 20–50 years on average, requiring simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zone megathrusts. Recent activity remains limited to an 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025 and several M7–8 quakes in 2026, with no precursors or model runs from monitoring agencies indicating imminent escalation in high-strain regions such as the Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Continuous USGS and international seismic surveillance will track any developments through year-end, though short-term forecasting carries inherent uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$328,508结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETThe near-certain trader consensus against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the exceptional rarity of these events, with only five recorded globally since 1900 and none since the 2011 Tohoku quake. USGS data show M9+ earthquakes occur roughly once every 20–50 years on average, requiring simultaneous rupture across hundreds of kilometers on major subduction zone megathrusts. Recent activity remains limited to an 8.8 event in Kamchatka in 2025 and several M7–8 quakes in 2026, with no precursors or model runs from monitoring agencies indicating imminent escalation in high-strain regions such as the Cascadia or Nankai Trough. Continuous USGS and international seismic surveillance will track any developments through year-end, though short-term forecasting carries inherent uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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