**Republican Nick Begich III holds a strong advantage in Alaska’s at-large House race.** As the incumbent who flipped the seat from Democrat Mary Peltola in 2024, Begich benefits from Alaska’s Republican tilt and the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system. The Democratic side weakened substantially when prominent challenger Matt Schultz withdrew in July 2026 and endorsed independent Bill Hill, leaving Hill as the leading alternative. Recent polling shows Begich ahead of Hill by margins ranging from 4 to 18 points, consistent with the 82.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. The August 18 primary is imminent, after which the November 3 general will determine the winner under ranked-choice voting. No major late shifts have altered the incumbent’s position.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$31,386 交易量
$31,386 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
83%
民主党
16%
$31,386 交易量
$31,386 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$6,757 交易量
83%
民主党
$24,629 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican Nick Begich III holds a strong advantage in Alaska’s at-large House race.** As the incumbent who flipped the seat from Democrat Mary Peltola in 2024, Begich benefits from Alaska’s Republican tilt and the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system. The Democratic side weakened substantially when prominent challenger Matt Schultz withdrew in July 2026 and endorsed independent Bill Hill, leaving Hill as the leading alternative. Recent polling shows Begich ahead of Hill by margins ranging from 4 to 18 points, consistent with the 82.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. The August 18 primary is imminent, after which the November 3 general will determine the winner under ranked-choice voting. No major late shifts have altered the incumbent’s position.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
交易量
$31,386结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican Nick Begich III holds a strong advantage in Alaska’s at-large House race.** As the incumbent who flipped the seat from Democrat Mary Peltola in 2024, Begich benefits from Alaska’s Republican tilt and the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system. The Democratic side weakened substantially when prominent challenger Matt Schultz withdrew in July 2026 and endorsed independent Bill Hill, leaving Hill as the leading alternative. Recent polling shows Begich ahead of Hill by margins ranging from 4 to 18 points, consistent with the 82.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. The August 18 primary is imminent, after which the November 3 general will determine the winner under ranked-choice voting. No major late shifts have altered the incumbent’s position.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$31,386结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican Nick Begich III holds a strong advantage in Alaska’s at-large House race.** As the incumbent who flipped the seat from Democrat Mary Peltola in 2024, Begich benefits from Alaska’s Republican tilt and the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system. The Democratic side weakened substantially when prominent challenger Matt Schultz withdrew in July 2026 and endorsed independent Bill Hill, leaving Hill as the leading alternative. Recent polling shows Begich ahead of Hill by margins ranging from 4 to 18 points, consistent with the 82.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. The August 18 primary is imminent, after which the November 3 general will determine the winner under ranked-choice voting. No major late shifts have altered the incumbent’s position.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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