The 1.6M-1.7M turnout band holds a commanding lead because preliminary official tallies from Alabama’s November 3 election show roughly 1.68 million total ballots cast in the Senate contest, consistent with a statewide participation rate near 44 percent. Higher Democratic engagement relative to the 2022 midterms, fueled by the open Senate seat and overlapping interest in the gubernatorial race, lifted overall volume without shifting the underlying Republican advantage. Pre-election voter registration data and polling averages had already pointed to a modest increase over prior non-presidential cycles. The outcome could still move outside the range only if final certification of absentee, provisional, or overseas ballots produces unusually large adjustments or if county-level discrepancies exceed historical norms.