Mary Peltola holds a substantial lead in the Alaska Senate race under ranked-choice voting, driven by her dominant 49.5% finish in the August 2026 top-four primary against incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan’s 41.4%. Recent AARP polling shows her ahead 46-41 in the first round and projected to win 53-47 after redistributions, bolstered by strong fundraising, appeal among independents and Alaska Native voters, and focus on fisheries management and affordability. Sullivan faces headwinds from a fisheries debate gaffe and the presence of similarly named Republican Dan J. Sullivan on the ballot, which could fragment conservative rankings. Traders price the contest as Peltola’s to lose ahead of the November 3 general election, consistent with toss-up or lean-Democratic ratings from several forecasters.