President Trump’s May 2025 directive and April 2026 request for $152 million in fiscal 2027 funding to rebuild Alcatraz as a federal prison for violent offenders have not advanced beyond the proposal stage. Reopening requires congressional legislation to transfer authority from the National Park Service, revoke park protections, secure appropriations, and address environmental and logistical barriers on the island. As of mid-October 2026, no such measures have passed, the Bureau of Prisons feasibility work remains preliminary, and the project faces opposition from local officials and advocacy groups over costs and tourism impacts. These institutional hurdles sustain the 85.5% implied probability that the site will not reopen as a prison this calendar year.