**Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election after resigning in early July amid a parliamentary standards inquiry into undeclared gifts, donations, and finances.** He secured 63.3% of the vote against a record field of 34 candidates (including novelty entrant Count Binface), with major parties boycotting the contest. This returned him to the seat he has held since the 2024 general election. As of mid-August, Farage remains the sitting Reform UK MP with no announced intention to vacate the constituency again. The ongoing inquiry has resumed but has not produced new triggers for resignation or disqualification. With the next UK general election expected no earlier than 2029 under standard parliamentary rules, the absence of fresh vacancies, health issues, or procedural changes supports traders’ 70% probability against another by-election occurring in 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年又举行了一次克拉克顿补选？
2026年又举行了一次克拉克顿补选？
是
30% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
30% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election after resigning in early July amid a parliamentary standards inquiry into undeclared gifts, donations, and finances.** He secured 63.3% of the vote against a record field of 34 candidates (including novelty entrant Count Binface), with major parties boycotting the contest. This returned him to the seat he has held since the 2024 general election.
As of mid-August, Farage remains the sitting Reform UK MP with no announced intention to vacate the constituency again. The ongoing inquiry has resumed but has not produced new triggers for resignation or disqualification. With the next UK general election expected no earlier than 2029 under standard parliamentary rules, the absence of fresh vacancies, health issues, or procedural changes supports traders’ 70% probability against another by-election occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election after resigning in early July amid a parliamentary standards inquiry into undeclared gifts, donations, and finances.** He secured 63.3% of the vote against a record field of 34 candidates (including novelty entrant Count Binface), with major parties boycotting the contest. This returned him to the seat he has held since the 2024 general election.
As of mid-August, Farage remains the sitting Reform UK MP with no announced intention to vacate the constituency again. The ongoing inquiry has resumed but has not produced new triggers for resignation or disqualification. With the next UK general election expected no earlier than 2029 under standard parliamentary rules, the absence of fresh vacancies, health issues, or procedural changes supports traders’ 70% probability against another by-election occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 13, 2026 Clacton by-election after resigning in early July amid a parliamentary standards inquiry into undeclared gifts, donations, and finances.** He secured 63.3% of the vote against a record field of 34 candidates (including novelty entrant Count Binface), with major parties boycotting the contest. This returned him to the seat he has held since the 2024 general election. As of mid-August, Farage remains the sitting Reform UK MP with no announced intention to vacate the constituency again. The ongoing inquiry has resumed but has not produced new triggers for resignation or disqualification. With the next UK general election expected no earlier than 2029 under standard parliamentary rules, the absence of fresh vacancies, health issues, or procedural changes supports traders’ 70% probability against another by-election occurring in 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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