Ongoing congressional scrutiny and state-level probes into Anthony Fauci’s pandemic-era actions have not produced federal charges against him as of mid-September 2026, supporting the market’s strong “No” pricing. A Senate panel referred him for contempt after he invoked the Fifth Amendment during July testimony, while the Department of Justice continues a broader inquiry into scientists linked to COVID-19 origins research that has so far yielded an indictment only against a former aide. Biden’s 2025 pardon for federal conduct through early 2025, combined with statute-of-limitations constraints and procedural hurdles, limits federal options. Florida and Louisiana attorneys general have opened parallel state investigations focused on potential violations outside the pardon’s scope, yet no charging decisions have emerged in those venues either. With roughly three months remaining before year-end, these structural and timing factors underpin traders’ assessment that prosecution remains unlikely.