**António Guterres is expected to complete his second term as UN Secretary-General, which ends on December 31, 2026.** The Security Council has conducted informal straw polls in July and August 2026 to identify his successor, with candidates such as Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Rebeca Grynspan, and Rafael Grossi advancing in early rounds, but no mechanism or political pressure has emerged to shorten Guterres’s tenure. Guterres remains active in his official role, conducting diplomatic visits including to Syria, addressing the Security Council on food security and conflict, and giving interviews on UN reform and multipolar geopolitics as recently as late August 2026. The formal selection process, launched in late 2025 under General Assembly resolutions, focuses on a smooth transition starting in 2027 rather than any early departure. With no reported resignations, health issues, or member-state initiatives to remove him, trader consensus reflected in the 59.5% “No” price aligns with the standard two-term precedent and the absence of disruptive developments in the final months of his mandate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于26% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-30
26% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**António Guterres is expected to complete his second term as UN Secretary-General, which ends on December 31, 2026.** The Security Council has conducted informal straw polls in July and August 2026 to identify his successor, with candidates such as Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Rebeca Grynspan, and Rafael Grossi advancing in early rounds, but no mechanism or political pressure has emerged to shorten Guterres’s tenure.
Guterres remains active in his official role, conducting diplomatic visits including to Syria, addressing the Security Council on food security and conflict, and giving interviews on UN reform and multipolar geopolitics as recently as late August 2026. The formal selection process, launched in late 2025 under General Assembly resolutions, focuses on a smooth transition starting in 2027 rather than any early departure.
With no reported resignations, health issues, or member-state initiatives to remove him, trader consensus reflected in the 59.5% “No” price aligns with the standard two-term precedent and the absence of disruptive developments in the final months of his mandate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
交易量
$2,313结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**António Guterres is expected to complete his second term as UN Secretary-General, which ends on December 31, 2026.** The Security Council has conducted informal straw polls in July and August 2026 to identify his successor, with candidates such as Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Rebeca Grynspan, and Rafael Grossi advancing in early rounds, but no mechanism or political pressure has emerged to shorten Guterres’s tenure.
Guterres remains active in his official role, conducting diplomatic visits including to Syria, addressing the Security Council on food security and conflict, and giving interviews on UN reform and multipolar geopolitics as recently as late August 2026. The formal selection process, launched in late 2025 under General Assembly resolutions, focuses on a smooth transition starting in 2027 rather than any early departure.
With no reported resignations, health issues, or member-state initiatives to remove him, trader consensus reflected in the 59.5% “No” price aligns with the standard two-term precedent and the absence of disruptive developments in the final months of his mandate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if António Guterres ceases to be Secretary-General of the United Nations for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of António Guterres's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from António Guterres and the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,313结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 21, 2026, 2:17 PM ET**António Guterres is expected to complete his second term as UN Secretary-General, which ends on December 31, 2026.** The Security Council has conducted informal straw polls in July and August 2026 to identify his successor, with candidates such as Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Rebeca Grynspan, and Rafael Grossi advancing in early rounds, but no mechanism or political pressure has emerged to shorten Guterres’s tenure. Guterres remains active in his official role, conducting diplomatic visits including to Syria, addressing the Security Council on food security and conflict, and giving interviews on UN reform and multipolar geopolitics as recently as late August 2026. The formal selection process, launched in late 2025 under General Assembly resolutions, focuses on a smooth transition starting in 2027 rather than any early departure. With no reported resignations, health issues, or member-state initiatives to remove him, trader consensus reflected in the 59.5% “No” price aligns with the standard two-term precedent and the absence of disruptive developments in the final months of his mandate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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