Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice despite repeated impeachment petitions, including dozens targeting Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited standing primarily to the Prosecutor-General and required a two-thirds Senate vote to open proceedings, erecting procedural barriers that remain under review. Current congressional alignment with the Lula administration further reduces prospects for the 54 votes needed before the end of 2026. Traders assign 96.5 percent probability to “No” based on this combination of institutional precedent, Senate leadership resistance, and the high constitutional threshold. A post-election Senate majority shift or reversal of the Mendes ruling could still open pathways, though both face significant timing and vote-count obstacles within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
$83,546 交易量
$83,546 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 概率
$83,546 交易量
$83,546 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice despite repeated impeachment petitions, including dozens targeting Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited standing primarily to the Prosecutor-General and required a two-thirds Senate vote to open proceedings, erecting procedural barriers that remain under review. Current congressional alignment with the Lula administration further reduces prospects for the 54 votes needed before the end of 2026. Traders assign 96.5 percent probability to “No” based on this combination of institutional precedent, Senate leadership resistance, and the high constitutional threshold. A post-election Senate majority shift or reversal of the Mendes ruling could still open pathways, though both face significant timing and vote-count obstacles within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
交易量
$83,546结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice despite repeated impeachment petitions, including dozens targeting Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited standing primarily to the Prosecutor-General and required a two-thirds Senate vote to open proceedings, erecting procedural barriers that remain under review. Current congressional alignment with the Lula administration further reduces prospects for the 54 votes needed before the end of 2026. Traders assign 96.5 percent probability to “No” based on this combination of institutional precedent, Senate leadership resistance, and the high constitutional threshold. A post-election Senate majority shift or reversal of the Mendes ruling could still open pathways, though both face significant timing and vote-count obstacles within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$83,546结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil’s Senate has never removed an STF justice despite repeated impeachment petitions, including dozens targeting Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 monocratic ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited standing primarily to the Prosecutor-General and required a two-thirds Senate vote to open proceedings, erecting procedural barriers that remain under review. Current congressional alignment with the Lula administration further reduces prospects for the 54 votes needed before the end of 2026. Traders assign 96.5 percent probability to “No” based on this combination of institutional precedent, Senate leadership resistance, and the high constitutional threshold. A post-election Senate majority shift or reversal of the Mendes ruling could still open pathways, though both face significant timing and vote-count obstacles within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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