Apple's decision to release only an M5-chip refresh of the original Vision Pro in late 2025, rather than a full next-generation redesign, anchors the 93.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 launch. Credible analyst reports from Ming-Chi Kuo and Mark Gurman indicate Apple has paused major mixed-reality headset development to prioritize lighter AI smart glasses, with any true Vision Pro 2 now projected for mid-2028 or later. Supply-chain timelines, the absence of developer signals or regulatory milestones, and executive focus on visionOS software updates through 2026 reinforce trader consensus that a successor remains years away. A surprise acceleration or unannounced pivot could still shift outcomes before year-end, though current evidence makes that scenario remote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's decision to release only an M5-chip refresh of the original Vision Pro in late 2025, rather than a full next-generation redesign, anchors the 93.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 launch. Credible analyst reports from Ming-Chi Kuo and Mark Gurman indicate Apple has paused major mixed-reality headset development to prioritize lighter AI smart glasses, with any true Vision Pro 2 now projected for mid-2028 or later. Supply-chain timelines, the absence of developer signals or regulatory milestones, and executive focus on visionOS software updates through 2026 reinforce trader consensus that a successor remains years away. A surprise acceleration or unannounced pivot could still shift outcomes before year-end, though current evidence makes that scenario remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
交易量
$4,772结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's decision to release only an M5-chip refresh of the original Vision Pro in late 2025, rather than a full next-generation redesign, anchors the 93.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 launch. Credible analyst reports from Ming-Chi Kuo and Mark Gurman indicate Apple has paused major mixed-reality headset development to prioritize lighter AI smart glasses, with any true Vision Pro 2 now projected for mid-2028 or later. Supply-chain timelines, the absence of developer signals or regulatory milestones, and executive focus on visionOS software updates through 2026 reinforce trader consensus that a successor remains years away. A surprise acceleration or unannounced pivot could still shift outcomes before year-end, though current evidence makes that scenario remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,772结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's decision to release only an M5-chip refresh of the original Vision Pro in late 2025, rather than a full next-generation redesign, anchors the 93.5% market-implied odds against a 2026 launch. Credible analyst reports from Ming-Chi Kuo and Mark Gurman indicate Apple has paused major mixed-reality headset development to prioritize lighter AI smart glasses, with any true Vision Pro 2 now projected for mid-2028 or later. Supply-chain timelines, the absence of developer signals or regulatory milestones, and executive focus on visionOS software updates through 2026 reinforce trader consensus that a successor remains years away. A surprise acceleration or unannounced pivot could still shift outcomes before year-end, though current evidence makes that scenario remote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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