Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton secured his party's nomination with over 81% in the March 2026 primary and holds a commanding position in the Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, including his own prior victories by wide margins. Democrat Hallie Shoffner, the opposing nominee, faces structural headwinds in a state where no Democratic Senate candidate has prevailed since 2008. Limited recent polling shows Cotton ahead, though one survey narrowed the gap, reflecting the race's baseline dynamics rather than any competitive shift. Trader consensus pricing the Republican outcome above 90% aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments that could alter probabilities include major scandals affecting either candidate, significant national political realignments favoring Democrats, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters in key areas.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$13,754 交易量
$13,754 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
4%
$13,754 交易量
$13,754 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$9,987 交易量
94%
民主党
$3,767 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton secured his party's nomination with over 81% in the March 2026 primary and holds a commanding position in the Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, including his own prior victories by wide margins. Democrat Hallie Shoffner, the opposing nominee, faces structural headwinds in a state where no Democratic Senate candidate has prevailed since 2008. Limited recent polling shows Cotton ahead, though one survey narrowed the gap, reflecting the race's baseline dynamics rather than any competitive shift. Trader consensus pricing the Republican outcome above 90% aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments that could alter probabilities include major scandals affecting either candidate, significant national political realignments favoring Democrats, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters in key areas.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$13,754结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton secured his party's nomination with over 81% in the March 2026 primary and holds a commanding position in the Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, including his own prior victories by wide margins. Democrat Hallie Shoffner, the opposing nominee, faces structural headwinds in a state where no Democratic Senate candidate has prevailed since 2008. Limited recent polling shows Cotton ahead, though one survey narrowed the gap, reflecting the race's baseline dynamics rather than any competitive shift. Trader consensus pricing the Republican outcome above 90% aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments that could alter probabilities include major scandals affecting either candidate, significant national political realignments favoring Democrats, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters in key areas.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$13,754结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton secured his party's nomination with over 81% in the March 2026 primary and holds a commanding position in the Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns in federal contests, including his own prior victories by wide margins. Democrat Hallie Shoffner, the opposing nominee, faces structural headwinds in a state where no Democratic Senate candidate has prevailed since 2008. Limited recent polling shows Cotton ahead, though one survey narrowed the gap, reflecting the race's baseline dynamics rather than any competitive shift. Trader consensus pricing the Republican outcome above 90% aligns with these fundamentals. Late developments that could alter probabilities include major scandals affecting either candidate, significant national political realignments favoring Democrats, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters in key areas.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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