Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton's commanding 82% victory in the March 3 primary solidified trader consensus on a Republican hold for Arkansas's U.S. Senate seat, reflecting the state's deep-red status where no Democrat has won since 1996 and Cotton previously triumphed by wide margins. Newcomer Democratic farmer Hallie Shoffner advanced uncompetitively in her primary, underscoring limited opposition strength amid low national Democratic enthusiasm in midterms. Absent recent polls showing contention, odds capture historical base rates for safe Republican incumbents in states like Arkansas. Scenarios to challenge include a major Cotton scandal, health event, or unprecedented national wave boosting Democratic turnout before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$10,561 交易量
$10,561 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
95%
民主党
3%
$10,561 交易量
$10,561 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$7,677 交易量
95%
民主党
$2,884 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton's commanding 82% victory in the March 3 primary solidified trader consensus on a Republican hold for Arkansas's U.S. Senate seat, reflecting the state's deep-red status where no Democrat has won since 1996 and Cotton previously triumphed by wide margins. Newcomer Democratic farmer Hallie Shoffner advanced uncompetitively in her primary, underscoring limited opposition strength amid low national Democratic enthusiasm in midterms. Absent recent polls showing contention, odds capture historical base rates for safe Republican incumbents in states like Arkansas. Scenarios to challenge include a major Cotton scandal, health event, or unprecedented national wave boosting Democratic turnout before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$10,561结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton's commanding 82% victory in the March 3 primary solidified trader consensus on a Republican hold for Arkansas's U.S. Senate seat, reflecting the state's deep-red status where no Democrat has won since 1996 and Cotton previously triumphed by wide margins. Newcomer Democratic farmer Hallie Shoffner advanced uncompetitively in her primary, underscoring limited opposition strength amid low national Democratic enthusiasm in midterms. Absent recent polls showing contention, odds capture historical base rates for safe Republican incumbents in states like Arkansas. Scenarios to challenge include a major Cotton scandal, health event, or unprecedented national wave boosting Democratic turnout before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$10,561结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton's commanding 82% victory in the March 3 primary solidified trader consensus on a Republican hold for Arkansas's U.S. Senate seat, reflecting the state's deep-red status where no Democrat has won since 1996 and Cotton previously triumphed by wide margins. Newcomer Democratic farmer Hallie Shoffner advanced uncompetitively in her primary, underscoring limited opposition strength amid low national Democratic enthusiasm in midterms. Absent recent polls showing contention, odds capture historical base rates for safe Republican incumbents in states like Arkansas. Scenarios to challenge include a major Cotton scandal, health event, or unprecedented national wave boosting Democratic turnout before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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