Strong presales momentum, with worldwide advances exceeding $125 million and domestic figures topping $65 million roughly 45 days before release, anchors trader expectations for a massive domestic opening. Robert Downey Jr.’s return as Doctor Doom, the Russo brothers’ direction, and heavy premium-format sales have fueled record early ticket purchases, narrowing the gap between the 360–400 million and 340–360 million brackets that together command 68 percent implied probability. Competition from Dune: Part Three on the same December 18 date introduces split-screen uncertainty, while historical comparisons to Endgame and Spider-Man: Brand New Day create a wide but plausible range. Final tracking revisions and preview data in the coming weeks will likely determine whether the market tilts toward the upper or lower half of that 340–400 million band.