Paul Gosar, the Republican incumbent, secured his party's nomination in the July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district and faces Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November general election. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 or greater partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates including Gosar and former President Trump, underpins the market's 94.5% Republican probability. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. Low Democratic fundraising and visibility, combined with the absence of competitive primary challenges or recent polling shifts, reinforce trader consensus. Late developments such as a major candidate withdrawal, scandal, or unexpected national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals unlikely before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,634 交易量
$25,634 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
95%
民主党
4%
$25,634 交易量
$25,634 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$10,192 交易量
95%
民主党
$15,442 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Paul Gosar, the Republican incumbent, secured his party's nomination in the July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district and faces Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November general election. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 or greater partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates including Gosar and former President Trump, underpins the market's 94.5% Republican probability. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. Low Democratic fundraising and visibility, combined with the absence of competitive primary challenges or recent polling shifts, reinforce trader consensus. Late developments such as a major candidate withdrawal, scandal, or unexpected national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals unlikely before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$25,634结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Paul Gosar, the Republican incumbent, secured his party's nomination in the July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district and faces Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November general election. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 or greater partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates including Gosar and former President Trump, underpins the market's 94.5% Republican probability. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. Low Democratic fundraising and visibility, combined with the absence of competitive primary challenges or recent polling shifts, reinforce trader consensus. Late developments such as a major candidate withdrawal, scandal, or unexpected national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals unlikely before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$25,634结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Paul Gosar, the Republican incumbent, secured his party's nomination in the July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district and faces Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November general election. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 or greater partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates including Gosar and former President Trump, underpins the market's 94.5% Republican probability. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. Low Democratic fundraising and visibility, combined with the absence of competitive primary challenges or recent polling shifts, reinforce trader consensus. Late developments such as a major candidate withdrawal, scandal, or unexpected national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals unlikely before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题