Houthi forces seized key Yemeni coastal positions and Mayyun Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during September 2026, granting greater surveillance and operational reach over the narrow channels without declaring a full blockade. Shipping transits have fallen sharply—roughly 47 percent below pre-crisis levels—with carriers citing insurance costs, rerouting risks, and selective attacks on Saudi-linked vessels. Yemeni government forces launched Operation Dawn of Yemen in early October, claiming limited coastal gains that remain disputed, while sporadic incidents continue south of the strait. Broader context includes prior disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Saudi crude shifts through Yanbu and exposing alternative routes to pressure. Traders monitor ongoing coalition responses, Houthi statements distinguishing Saudi targets from others, and any signs of expanded interdiction or negotiated de-escalation that could alter passage volumes.