Polymarket traders assign low implied probabilities to an effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—3% by May 31, 13% by June 30, and 21% by September 30—reflecting skepticism over Houthi threats materializing into sustained blockades amid U.S. Navy escorts maintaining reduced oil flows at 4 million barrels per day versus pre-crisis 9 million. Recent catalysts include April 19 Houthi warnings tied to U.S.-Iran tensions and a May 14 Iranian lawmaker proposal for shutdown, yet over 190 attacks since 2023 have not triggered the IMF PortWatch threshold of ≤10 daily ship arrivals. Rerouting via Cape of Good Hope has spiked Baltic Dry Index 29% monthly to 3,195, Brent crude to $108 per barrel with 12% monthly gains on supply premia, and war-risk insurance threefold. Upcoming U.S.-Iran talks and May FOMC could shift risk sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,840,339 交易量
2026-04-30
5月31日
3%
6月30日
13%
9月30日
20%
$2,840,339 交易量
5月31日
$820,907 交易量
3%
6月30日
$33,958 交易量
13%
9月30日
$3,532 交易量
20%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Polymarket traders assign low implied probabilities to an effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—3% by May 31, 13% by June 30, and 21% by September 30—reflecting skepticism over Houthi threats materializing into sustained blockades amid U.S. Navy escorts maintaining reduced oil flows at 4 million barrels per day versus pre-crisis 9 million. Recent catalysts include April 19 Houthi warnings tied to U.S.-Iran tensions and a May 14 Iranian lawmaker proposal for shutdown, yet over 190 attacks since 2023 have not triggered the IMF PortWatch threshold of ≤10 daily ship arrivals. Rerouting via Cape of Good Hope has spiked Baltic Dry Index 29% monthly to 3,195, Brent crude to $108 per barrel with 12% monthly gains on supply premia, and war-risk insurance threefold. Upcoming U.S.-Iran talks and May FOMC could shift risk sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市场开放时间： May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
交易量
$2,840,339结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Polymarket traders assign low implied probabilities to an effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—3% by May 31, 13% by June 30, and 21% by September 30—reflecting skepticism over Houthi threats materializing into sustained blockades amid U.S. Navy escorts maintaining reduced oil flows at 4 million barrels per day versus pre-crisis 9 million. Recent catalysts include April 19 Houthi warnings tied to U.S.-Iran tensions and a May 14 Iranian lawmaker proposal for shutdown, yet over 190 attacks since 2023 have not triggered the IMF PortWatch threshold of ≤10 daily ship arrivals. Rerouting via Cape of Good Hope has spiked Baltic Dry Index 29% monthly to 3,195, Brent crude to $108 per barrel with 12% monthly gains on supply premia, and war-risk insurance threefold. Upcoming U.S.-Iran talks and May FOMC could shift risk sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$2,840,339结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign low implied probabilities to an effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—3% by May 31, 13% by June 30, and 21% by September 30—reflecting skepticism over Houthi threats materializing into sustained blockades amid U.S. Navy escorts maintaining reduced oil flows at 4 million barrels per day versus pre-crisis 9 million. Recent catalysts include April 19 Houthi warnings tied to U.S.-Iran tensions and a May 14 Iranian lawmaker proposal for shutdown, yet over 190 attacks since 2023 have not triggered the IMF PortWatch threshold of ≤10 daily ship arrivals. Rerouting via Cape of Good Hope has spiked Baltic Dry Index 29% monthly to 3,195, Brent crude to $108 per barrel with 12% monthly gains on supply premia, and war-risk insurance threefold. Upcoming U.S.-Iran talks and May FOMC could shift risk sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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