Trader consensus assigns the Democratic trifecta a 52.5 percent implied probability for 2028 control of the presidency, Senate, and House, while the Republican trifecta stands at 14 percent and various split-government outcomes range from 3.8 to 9.5 percent. The narrow lead and clustered probabilities reflect post-2026 midterm positioning, where neither party holds clear structural advantages in swing states or congressional maps. Voter turnout patterns, economic indicators, and the emerging presidential fields remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities ahead of primaries and the general election. Scheduled legislative sessions and confirmation dynamics through 2027 provide additional catalysts for reassessment by traders evaluating paths to unified or divided government.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1H6H1D7D30DALL
View resolved

警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题