Brazil’s 2026 IPCA inflation expectations have shifted higher following President Lula’s October 25 reelection, with the Focus survey median rising to 5.22% as of November 3 amid concerns over fiscal policy and currency weakness. The central bank’s Copom raised its own 2026 projection to 5.6% while holding the Selic rate at 13.75% on November 5, citing upside risks from exchange-rate volatility and above-ceiling twelve-month inflation near 4.62%. Trader positioning on Polymarket reflects this consensus around the 5.00–5.49% band, supported by resilient services prices and a tight labor market, though further data releases and the December Copom meeting could influence the final outcome.