Recent September IPCA data showed a rebound to 4.58% year-over-year from 4.22% in August, with the October IPCA-15 preview at 4.62%, reflecting acceleration in food, transport, and services components amid a heated labor market. The Central Bank’s unanimous decision to hold the Selic rate at 13.75% in November, citing de-anchored expectations and upside risks, has reinforced trader consensus around the 5.00-5.99% range for full-year 2026. Fiscal uncertainties following Lula’s reelection, potential oil price pressures, El Niño effects on food, and proposed labor and tax changes have prompted upward forecast revisions, though the year-to-date pace of 3.95% through September keeps the outcome closely contested between the two leading bins. October’s full release and the next Monetary Policy Report represent near-term catalysts.