The strong Democratic lean of California's 4th congressional district, encompassing Napa and Sonoma wine country plus Sacramento suburbs like Davis, combined with the state's top-two primary system, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic general election victory. Voter registration favors Democrats by a wide margin, and multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 contest. Incumbent Mike Thompson has secured repeated reelection with substantial fundraising and name recognition, while recent primary results advanced Democratic candidates to the general ballot. A Republican nominee would need an unprecedented shift in turnout or district dynamics to compete. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or redistricting changes remain the primary scenarios that could still influence the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$13,032 交易量
$13,032 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
96%
共和党
2%
$13,032 交易量
$13,032 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$5,915 交易量
96%
共和党
$7,117 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 4th congressional district, encompassing Napa and Sonoma wine country plus Sacramento suburbs like Davis, combined with the state's top-two primary system, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic general election victory. Voter registration favors Democrats by a wide margin, and multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 contest. Incumbent Mike Thompson has secured repeated reelection with substantial fundraising and name recognition, while recent primary results advanced Democratic candidates to the general ballot. A Republican nominee would need an unprecedented shift in turnout or district dynamics to compete. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or redistricting changes remain the primary scenarios that could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$13,032结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 4th congressional district, encompassing Napa and Sonoma wine country plus Sacramento suburbs like Davis, combined with the state's top-two primary system, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic general election victory. Voter registration favors Democrats by a wide margin, and multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 contest. Incumbent Mike Thompson has secured repeated reelection with substantial fundraising and name recognition, while recent primary results advanced Democratic candidates to the general ballot. A Republican nominee would need an unprecedented shift in turnout or district dynamics to compete. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or redistricting changes remain the primary scenarios that could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$13,032结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of California's 4th congressional district, encompassing Napa and Sonoma wine country plus Sacramento suburbs like Davis, combined with the state's top-two primary system, anchors trader consensus around a Democratic general election victory. Voter registration favors Democrats by a wide margin, and multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 2026 contest. Incumbent Mike Thompson has secured repeated reelection with substantial fundraising and name recognition, while recent primary results advanced Democratic candidates to the general ballot. A Republican nominee would need an unprecedented shift in turnout or district dynamics to compete. Late-breaking developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or redistricting changes remain the primary scenarios that could still influence the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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