California's 14th congressional district ranks as a strongly Democratic seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+19, encompassing East Bay communities such as Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. Eric Swalwell's resignation triggered a 2026 special election whose June primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to both the August 18 special general and the November general election under California's top-two system. No Republican reached the general ballot, and the district's consistent voting patterns have produced Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic winner because the November contest pits Democrat against Democrat, leaving virtually no path for Republican victory absent an extraordinary disqualifying event for both nominees.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$35,737 交易量
$35,737 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
96%
共和党
2%
$35,737 交易量
$35,737 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$13,981 交易量
96%
共和党
$21,756 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district ranks as a strongly Democratic seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+19, encompassing East Bay communities such as Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. Eric Swalwell's resignation triggered a 2026 special election whose June primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to both the August 18 special general and the November general election under California's top-two system. No Republican reached the general ballot, and the district's consistent voting patterns have produced Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic winner because the November contest pits Democrat against Democrat, leaving virtually no path for Republican victory absent an extraordinary disqualifying event for both nominees.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$35,737结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district ranks as a strongly Democratic seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+19, encompassing East Bay communities such as Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. Eric Swalwell's resignation triggered a 2026 special election whose June primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to both the August 18 special general and the November general election under California's top-two system. No Republican reached the general ballot, and the district's consistent voting patterns have produced Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic winner because the November contest pits Democrat against Democrat, leaving virtually no path for Republican victory absent an extraordinary disqualifying event for both nominees.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,737结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th congressional district ranks as a strongly Democratic seat with a Partisan Voter Index of D+19, encompassing East Bay communities such as Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. Eric Swalwell's resignation triggered a 2026 special election whose June primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to both the August 18 special general and the November general election under California's top-two system. No Republican reached the general ballot, and the district's consistent voting patterns have produced Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic winner because the November contest pits Democrat against Democrat, leaving virtually no path for Republican victory absent an extraordinary disqualifying event for both nominees.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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