The tight race for the Palme d’Or reflects a stacked competition slate of 22 films from established auteurs, with Na Hong-jin’s Hope holding a narrow edge in trader sentiment thanks to the director’s proven track record in genre-blending thrillers and early positive word-of-mouth from its Cannes premiere. Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland and Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden follow closely, buoyed by strong critical consensus and their directors’ recent festival successes, while Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord and Andrey Zvyagintsev’s Minotaur draw support from their auteurs’ historical Palme pedigree. With the jury led by Park Chan-wook and including Demi Moore set to deliberate through the final week, key differentiating factors include critical reception, thematic resonance with the festival’s emphasis on international cinema, and any last-minute buzz from remaining screenings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI 29%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin 26%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV 17%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke 13%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI
29%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin
26%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV
17%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke
13%
DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH
12%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)
10%
FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU
17%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI
6%
AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR
5%
COWARD by Lukas DHONT
4%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER
4%
詹姆斯·格雷《纸老虎》
4%
THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS
4%
THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI
4%
MOULIN by László NEMES
4%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS
3%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET
3%
ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY
3%
PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI
3%
SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu
3%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE
2%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji
<1%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI 29%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin 26%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV 17%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke 13%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI
29%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin
26%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV
17%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke
13%
DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH
12%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)
10%
FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU
17%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI
6%
AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR
5%
COWARD by Lukas DHONT
4%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER
4%
詹姆斯·格雷《纸老虎》
4%
THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS
4%
THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI
4%
MOULIN by László NEMES
4%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS
3%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET
3%
ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY
3%
PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI
3%
SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu
3%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE
2%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间: Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight race for the Palme d’Or reflects a stacked competition slate of 22 films from established auteurs, with Na Hong-jin’s Hope holding a narrow edge in trader sentiment thanks to the director’s proven track record in genre-blending thrillers and early positive word-of-mouth from its Cannes premiere. Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland and Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden follow closely, buoyed by strong critical consensus and their directors’ recent festival successes, while Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord and Andrey Zvyagintsev’s Minotaur draw support from their auteurs’ historical Palme pedigree. With the jury led by Park Chan-wook and including Demi Moore set to deliberate through the final week, key differentiating factors include critical reception, thematic resonance with the festival’s emphasis on international cinema, and any last-minute buzz from remaining screenings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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