**European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s eight-year term runs until October 2027, and recent statements plus procedural timelines support the market’s 58% implied probability that she remains in post through 2026.** She has repeatedly affirmed she will stay at least until the end of this year and, in a mid-September interview, stated she will leave in 2027 without further detail. Eurozone governments have begun informal negotiations over a “grand package” of replacements for Lagarde and two other Executive Board members whose terms expire in 2027, with expectations of a framework agreement by December 2026. This process centers on identifying successors—such as former Dutch central bank head Klaas Knot or Bank for International Settlements general manager Pablo Hernández de Cos—while Lagarde continues monetary-policy duties, including the recent deposit-rate hike. Speculation about an earlier exit, possibly linked to a World Economic Forum role or French political involvement ahead of the 2027 presidential vote, has persisted since mid-2025 but has not produced any confirmed plans for a 2026 departure. The combination of her public commitments, the 2027 term end, and the multi-month appointment timeline keeps the balance of trader consensus on continuity through the remainder of the year.