Recent Canadian federal polling consistently shows the Liberal Party, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, maintaining an 8- to 15-point national lead over the Conservatives through mid-August 2026. This follows the Liberals' transition from a post-2025 minority to a majority secured via by-election victories and floor crossings. Multiple firms, including Liaison Strategies, Ipsos, Abacus, and Research Co., report Liberal support in the low-to-mid 40s against Conservative figures in the high 20s to mid-30s, with no meaningful reversal in the past several months. The sustained gap reflects voter assessments of the current government amid ongoing economic and trade pressures, limiting Conservative momentum in seat projections. While an election remains possible before the statutory deadline, scheduled events such as ongoing by-elections and policy responses to external trade deadlines represent the primary near-term variables that could influence polling trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
5% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent Canadian federal polling consistently shows the Liberal Party, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, maintaining an 8- to 15-point national lead over the Conservatives through mid-August 2026. This follows the Liberals' transition from a post-2025 minority to a majority secured via by-election victories and floor crossings. Multiple firms, including Liaison Strategies, Ipsos, Abacus, and Research Co., report Liberal support in the low-to-mid 40s against Conservative figures in the high 20s to mid-30s, with no meaningful reversal in the past several months. The sustained gap reflects voter assessments of the current government amid ongoing economic and trade pressures, limiting Conservative momentum in seat projections. While an election remains possible before the statutory deadline, scheduled events such as ongoing by-elections and policy responses to external trade deadlines represent the primary near-term variables that could influence polling trajectories.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
市场开放时间： Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
交易量
$8,090结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.Recent Canadian federal polling consistently shows the Liberal Party, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, maintaining an 8- to 15-point national lead over the Conservatives through mid-August 2026. This follows the Liberals' transition from a post-2025 minority to a majority secured via by-election victories and floor crossings. Multiple firms, including Liaison Strategies, Ipsos, Abacus, and Research Co., report Liberal support in the low-to-mid 40s against Conservative figures in the high 20s to mid-30s, with no meaningful reversal in the past several months. The sustained gap reflects voter assessments of the current government amid ongoing economic and trade pressures, limiting Conservative momentum in seat projections. While an election remains possible before the statutory deadline, scheduled events such as ongoing by-elections and policy responses to external trade deadlines represent the primary near-term variables that could influence polling trajectories.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), the CPC becomes the favorite in the "338Canada Seat Projection" (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection) at any published data point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
Equal seat projections will not qualify; the CPC must have a strictly higher seat projection than the LPC.
Confidence intervals will not be considered; only the main seat projection number will be used.
Revisions indicating a qualifying projection that are released within this market’s timeframe will be considered, but will not invalidate a previously released data point that resolved the market. Revisions published after the specified timeframe will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the seat projections for the two specified parties on 338Canada Federal Projections (https://338canada.com/federal.htm#projection). If the website is unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If the source becomes permanently unavailable by the end of the specified timeframe, the market will resolve based on the data points published prior to its unavailability.
Note: Only the 338Canada “338Canada Seat Projection” values for the LPC and CPC at each published data point will qualify, regardless of confidence intervals, methodological changes, or projections by other sources.
交易量
$8,090结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 25, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Canadian federal polling consistently shows the Liberal Party, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, maintaining an 8- to 15-point national lead over the Conservatives through mid-August 2026. This follows the Liberals' transition from a post-2025 minority to a majority secured via by-election victories and floor crossings. Multiple firms, including Liaison Strategies, Ipsos, Abacus, and Research Co., report Liberal support in the low-to-mid 40s against Conservative figures in the high 20s to mid-30s, with no meaningful reversal in the past several months. The sustained gap reflects voter assessments of the current government amid ongoing economic and trade pressures, limiting Conservative momentum in seat projections. While an election remains possible before the statutory deadline, scheduled events such as ongoing by-elections and policy responses to external trade deadlines represent the primary near-term variables that could influence polling trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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