**Strong international health agency assessments underpin the 96% market-implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo with over 5,000 confirmed cases and spread to six provinces by late August, remains regionally contained despite rapid early growth and a case fatality ratio near 48%. WHO and CDC risk evaluations classify the global threat as low, citing effective border surveillance, limited sustained transmission beyond affected areas (including resolved cases in Uganda), and absence of widespread community spread in distant regions. Historical Ebola patterns show containment without pandemic-scale dissemination when response infrastructure activates. Realistic shifts could occur from major surveillance failures, conflict-driven mobility surges enabling multi-continental chains, or unexpectedly high transmissibility in new populations, though current epidemiological indicators and modeling favor continued regional focus through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% 概率
$718,441 交易量
$718,441 交易量
2026-12-31
4% 概率
$718,441 交易量
$718,441 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong international health agency assessments underpin the 96% market-implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo with over 5,000 confirmed cases and spread to six provinces by late August, remains regionally contained despite rapid early growth and a case fatality ratio near 48%. WHO and CDC risk evaluations classify the global threat as low, citing effective border surveillance, limited sustained transmission beyond affected areas (including resolved cases in Uganda), and absence of widespread community spread in distant regions. Historical Ebola patterns show containment without pandemic-scale dissemination when response infrastructure activates. Realistic shifts could occur from major surveillance failures, conflict-driven mobility surges enabling multi-continental chains, or unexpectedly high transmissibility in new populations, though current epidemiological indicators and modeling favor continued regional focus through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
交易量
$718,441结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Strong international health agency assessments underpin the 96% market-implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo with over 5,000 confirmed cases and spread to six provinces by late August, remains regionally contained despite rapid early growth and a case fatality ratio near 48%. WHO and CDC risk evaluations classify the global threat as low, citing effective border surveillance, limited sustained transmission beyond affected areas (including resolved cases in Uganda), and absence of widespread community spread in distant regions. Historical Ebola patterns show containment without pandemic-scale dissemination when response infrastructure activates. Realistic shifts could occur from major surveillance failures, conflict-driven mobility surges enabling multi-continental chains, or unexpectedly high transmissibility in new populations, though current epidemiological indicators and modeling favor continued regional focus through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$718,441结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET**Strong international health agency assessments underpin the 96% market-implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026.** The ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak, centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo with over 5,000 confirmed cases and spread to six provinces by late August, remains regionally contained despite rapid early growth and a case fatality ratio near 48%. WHO and CDC risk evaluations classify the global threat as low, citing effective border surveillance, limited sustained transmission beyond affected areas (including resolved cases in Uganda), and absence of widespread community spread in distant regions. Historical Ebola patterns show containment without pandemic-scale dissemination when response infrastructure activates. Realistic shifts could occur from major surveillance failures, conflict-driven mobility surges enabling multi-continental chains, or unexpectedly high transmissibility in new populations, though current epidemiological indicators and modeling favor continued regional focus through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题