Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pretrial detention since his March 2025 arrest on charges including forming and leading a criminal organization, corruption, bid-rigging, and related offenses tied to Istanbul municipal operations. The large-scale trial involving over 400 defendants began in March 2026 and continued through multiple hearings into August 2026, with the court extending custody for İmamoğlu while conditionally releasing dozens of co-defendants. Recent sessions, including those in July and August, focused on defenses and witness statements without altering his status, and proceedings were adjourned with further hearings scheduled later in the year. Turkish authorities maintain the case follows standard judicial processes independent of political considerations, while the volume of evidence under review and the severity of the accusations have sustained the detention. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability against release before the end of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
6% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pretrial detention since his March 2025 arrest on charges including forming and leading a criminal organization, corruption, bid-rigging, and related offenses tied to Istanbul municipal operations. The large-scale trial involving over 400 defendants began in March 2026 and continued through multiple hearings into August 2026, with the court extending custody for İmamoğlu while conditionally releasing dozens of co-defendants. Recent sessions, including those in July and August, focused on defenses and witness statements without altering his status, and proceedings were adjourned with further hearings scheduled later in the year. Turkish authorities maintain the case follows standard judicial processes independent of political considerations, while the volume of evidence under review and the severity of the accusations have sustained the detention. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability against release before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
交易量
$6,407结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in pretrial detention since his March 2025 arrest on charges including forming and leading a criminal organization, corruption, bid-rigging, and related offenses tied to Istanbul municipal operations. The large-scale trial involving over 400 defendants began in March 2026 and continued through multiple hearings into August 2026, with the court extending custody for İmamoğlu while conditionally releasing dozens of co-defendants. Recent sessions, including those in July and August, focused on defenses and witness statements without altering his status, and proceedings were adjourned with further hearings scheduled later in the year. Turkish authorities maintain the case follows standard judicial processes independent of political considerations, while the volume of evidence under review and the severity of the accusations have sustained the detention. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability against release before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,407结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ETEkrem İmamoğlu has remained in pretrial detention since his March 2025 arrest on charges including forming and leading a criminal organization, corruption, bid-rigging, and related offenses tied to Istanbul municipal operations. The large-scale trial involving over 400 defendants began in March 2026 and continued through multiple hearings into August 2026, with the court extending custody for İmamoğlu while conditionally releasing dozens of co-defendants. Recent sessions, including those in July and August, focused on defenses and witness statements without altering his status, and proceedings were adjourned with further hearings scheduled later in the year. Turkish authorities maintain the case follows standard judicial processes independent of political considerations, while the volume of evidence under review and the severity of the accusations have sustained the detention. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability against release before the end of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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