Turkish courts have kept Ekrem İmamoğlu in pre-trial detention at Marmara Prison since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, bribery, and organized-crime charges tied to Istanbul municipal operations. The mass trial involving over 400 co-defendants began in March 2026 and continues with periodic extensions, as judges have repeatedly cited flight risk and evidentiary requirements when denying release requests. While conditional releases were granted to dozens of other defendants in 2026, İmamoğlu remained unaffected. A separate September 2026 conviction for insulting a public official added a two-year sentence and political ban, further anchoring him in custody. These sustained judicial actions, absent any executive intervention or procedural reversal, underpin trader expectations that he will not be released before December 31, 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
6% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkish courts have kept Ekrem İmamoğlu in pre-trial detention at Marmara Prison since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, bribery, and organized-crime charges tied to Istanbul municipal operations. The mass trial involving over 400 co-defendants began in March 2026 and continues with periodic extensions, as judges have repeatedly cited flight risk and evidentiary requirements when denying release requests. While conditional releases were granted to dozens of other defendants in 2026, İmamoğlu remained unaffected. A separate September 2026 conviction for insulting a public official added a two-year sentence and political ban, further anchoring him in custody. These sustained judicial actions, absent any executive intervention or procedural reversal, underpin trader expectations that he will not be released before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
交易量
$6,407结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkish courts have kept Ekrem İmamoğlu in pre-trial detention at Marmara Prison since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, bribery, and organized-crime charges tied to Istanbul municipal operations. The mass trial involving over 400 co-defendants began in March 2026 and continues with periodic extensions, as judges have repeatedly cited flight risk and evidentiary requirements when denying release requests. While conditional releases were granted to dozens of other defendants in 2026, İmamoğlu remained unaffected. A separate September 2026 conviction for insulting a public official added a two-year sentence and political ban, further anchoring him in custody. These sustained judicial actions, absent any executive intervention or procedural reversal, underpin trader expectations that he will not be released before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,407结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ETTurkish courts have kept Ekrem İmamoğlu in pre-trial detention at Marmara Prison since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, bribery, and organized-crime charges tied to Istanbul municipal operations. The mass trial involving over 400 co-defendants began in March 2026 and continues with periodic extensions, as judges have repeatedly cited flight risk and evidentiary requirements when denying release requests. While conditional releases were granted to dozens of other defendants in 2026, İmamoğlu remained unaffected. A separate September 2026 conviction for insulting a public official added a two-year sentence and political ban, further anchoring him in custody. These sustained judicial actions, absent any executive intervention or procedural reversal, underpin trader expectations that he will not be released before December 31, 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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