Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation to run for Senate, holds the leading position in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability. Recent polling from late August and early September, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest surveys, shows Ferraço ahead in first-round scenarios (typically 35-43%) and favored in runoff matchups against main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos), the former Vitória mayor at 34.5%. Pazolini’s support stems from his municipal record and party coalition, while other registered candidates such as Helder Salomão (PT) register lower single-digit shares. The first-round vote on October 4 and potential runoff on October 25 remain the key resolution triggers, with Ferraço’s incumbency and state management focus providing the primary edge reflected in trader pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于里卡多·费哈索 64%
洛伦索·帕佐利尼 34%
塞尔吉奥·维迪加尔 <1%
阿纳尔迪尼奥·博尔戈 <1%
$40,321 交易量
$40,321 交易量
2026-10-04
里卡多·费哈索
64%
洛伦索·帕佐利尼
34%
塞尔吉奥·维迪加尔
<1%
阿纳尔迪尼奥·博尔戈
<1%
Euclério Sampaio
<1%
里卡多·费哈索 64%
洛伦索·帕佐利尼 34%
塞尔吉奥·维迪加尔 <1%
阿纳尔迪尼奥·博尔戈 <1%
$40,321 交易量
$40,321 交易量
2026-10-04
里卡多·费哈索
$14,496 交易量
64%
洛伦索·帕佐利尼
$13,944 交易量
34%
塞尔吉奥·维迪加尔
$3,569 交易量
<1%
阿纳尔迪尼奥·博尔戈
$4,885 交易量
<1%
Euclério Sampaio
$3,428 交易量
<1%
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation to run for Senate, holds the leading position in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability. Recent polling from late August and early September, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest surveys, shows Ferraço ahead in first-round scenarios (typically 35-43%) and favored in runoff matchups against main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos), the former Vitória mayor at 34.5%. Pazolini’s support stems from his municipal record and party coalition, while other registered candidates such as Helder Salomão (PT) register lower single-digit shares. The first-round vote on October 4 and potential runoff on October 25 remain the key resolution triggers, with Ferraço’s incumbency and state management focus providing the primary edge reflected in trader pricing.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
交易量
$40,321结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETThe Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation to run for Senate, holds the leading position in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability. Recent polling from late August and early September, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest surveys, shows Ferraço ahead in first-round scenarios (typically 35-43%) and favored in runoff matchups against main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos), the former Vitória mayor at 34.5%. Pazolini’s support stems from his municipal record and party coalition, while other registered candidates such as Helder Salomão (PT) register lower single-digit shares. The first-round vote on October 4 and potential runoff on October 25 remain the key resolution triggers, with Ferraço’s incumbency and state management focus providing the primary edge reflected in trader pricing.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$40,321结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETRicardo Ferraço (MDB), the current governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation to run for Senate, holds the leading position in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race at 62.5% implied probability. Recent polling from late August and early September, including Real Time Big Data and Quaest surveys, shows Ferraço ahead in first-round scenarios (typically 35-43%) and favored in runoff matchups against main challenger Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos), the former Vitória mayor at 34.5%. Pazolini’s support stems from his municipal record and party coalition, while other registered candidates such as Helder Salomão (PT) register lower single-digit shares. The first-round vote on October 4 and potential runoff on October 25 remain the key resolution triggers, with Ferraço’s incumbency and state management focus providing the primary edge reflected in trader pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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