Israel’s commanding 100% implied probability as the first semi-final winner reflects overwhelming trader consensus around its standout televote projection and polished performance of the upbeat rock ballad “Michelle” by Noam Bettan. Recent model forecasts and bookmaker odds highlight Israel’s decisive edge in audience voting, reinforced by strong rehearsal feedback and strategic promotion ahead of the Vienna contest. While Finland leads jury projections and could narrow the gap if voting patterns shift dramatically, realistic upset scenarios remain limited to an unprecedented jury-televote divergence or last-minute rule clarifications from the EBU. The market’s near-certainty underscores how decisively Israel has captured public momentum in this semi-final field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Israel 100.0%
Georgia <1%
Greece <1%
San Marino <1%
$255,222 交易量
$255,222 交易量
2026-05-12
Georgia
No
Greece
No
San Marino
No
Belgium
No
Croatia
No
Estonia
No
Finland
No
Israel
Yes
Lithuania
No
Moldova
No
Montenegro
No
Poland
No
Portugal
No
Serbia
No
Sweden
No
Israel 100.0%
Georgia <1%
Greece <1%
San Marino <1%
$255,222 交易量
$255,222 交易量
2026-05-12
Georgia
$8,374 交易量
No
Greece
$25,328 交易量
No
San Marino
$7,360 交易量
No
Belgium
$7,799 交易量
No
Croatia
$24,125 交易量
No
Estonia
$7,600 交易量
No
Finland
$46,044 交易量
No
Israel
$20,981 交易量
Yes
Lithuania
$13,949 交易量
No
Moldova
$33,744 交易量
No
Montenegro
$7,147 交易量
No
Poland
$18,074 交易量
No
Portugal
$9,164 交易量
No
Serbia
$11,005 交易量
No
Sweden
$14,527 交易量
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Israel’s commanding 100% implied probability as the first semi-final winner reflects overwhelming trader consensus around its standout televote projection and polished performance of the upbeat rock ballad “Michelle” by Noam Bettan. Recent model forecasts and bookmaker odds highlight Israel’s decisive edge in audience voting, reinforced by strong rehearsal feedback and strategic promotion ahead of the Vienna contest. While Finland leads jury projections and could narrow the gap if voting patterns shift dramatically, realistic upset scenarios remain limited to an unprecedented jury-televote divergence or last-minute rule clarifications from the EBU. The market’s near-certainty underscores how decisively Israel has captured public momentum in this semi-final field.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
市场开放时间： May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET
交易量
$255,222结束日期
2026-05-12市场开放时间
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Israel’s commanding 100% implied probability as the first semi-final winner reflects overwhelming trader consensus around its standout televote projection and polished performance of the upbeat rock ballad “Michelle” by Noam Bettan. Recent model forecasts and bookmaker odds highlight Israel’s decisive edge in audience voting, reinforced by strong rehearsal feedback and strategic promotion ahead of the Vienna contest. While Finland leads jury projections and could narrow the gap if voting patterns shift dramatically, realistic upset scenarios remain limited to an unprecedented jury-televote divergence or last-minute rule clarifications from the EBU. The market’s near-certainty underscores how decisively Israel has captured public momentum in this semi-final field.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
交易量
$255,222结束日期
2026-05-12市场开放时间
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Israel’s commanding 100% implied probability as the first semi-final winner reflects overwhelming trader consensus around its standout televote projection and polished performance of the upbeat rock ballad “Michelle” by Noam Bettan. Recent model forecasts and bookmaker odds highlight Israel’s decisive edge in audience voting, reinforced by strong rehearsal feedback and strategic promotion ahead of the Vienna contest. While Finland leads jury projections and could narrow the gap if voting patterns shift dramatically, realistic upset scenarios remain limited to an unprecedented jury-televote divergence or last-minute rule clarifications from the EBU. The market’s near-certainty underscores how decisively Israel has captured public momentum in this semi-final field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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