Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf, continues under firm Iranian governmental and military control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. and CENTCOM strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt missile, drone, and mining threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or authority shifts have occurred on Farsi itself, consistent with the conflict's pattern of airstrikes and sanctions rather than territorial conquest. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probabilities to any change by late September 2026 deadlines, reflecting the island's limited strategic profile compared with export terminals or chokepoint facilities and the absence of confirmed plans for ground operations or handover. Escalation in naval confrontations or mediated talks could still alter the outlook within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$198,173 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
2%
$198,173 交易量
9月30日
$20,903 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf, continues under firm Iranian governmental and military control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. and CENTCOM strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt missile, drone, and mining threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or authority shifts have occurred on Farsi itself, consistent with the conflict's pattern of airstrikes and sanctions rather than territorial conquest. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probabilities to any change by late September 2026 deadlines, reflecting the island's limited strategic profile compared with export terminals or chokepoint facilities and the absence of confirmed plans for ground operations or handover. Escalation in naval confrontations or mediated talks could still alter the outlook within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$198,173结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf, continues under firm Iranian governmental and military control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. and CENTCOM strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt missile, drone, and mining threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or authority shifts have occurred on Farsi itself, consistent with the conflict's pattern of airstrikes and sanctions rather than territorial conquest. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probabilities to any change by late September 2026 deadlines, reflecting the island's limited strategic profile compared with export terminals or chokepoint facilities and the absence of confirmed plans for ground operations or handover. Escalation in naval confrontations or mediated talks could still alter the outlook within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$198,173结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETFarsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the central Persian Gulf, continues under firm Iranian governmental and military control amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. and CENTCOM strikes have targeted military sites on nearby islands including Larak, Qeshm, and Kharg to disrupt missile, drone, and mining threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or authority shifts have occurred on Farsi itself, consistent with the conflict's pattern of airstrikes and sanctions rather than territorial conquest. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probabilities to any change by late September 2026 deadlines, reflecting the island's limited strategic profile compared with export terminals or chokepoint facilities and the absence of confirmed plans for ground operations or handover. Escalation in naval confrontations or mediated talks could still alter the outlook within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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