A developing strong El Niño, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issuing an advisory and projecting greater than 90% odds of a very strong event through winter 2026-27, stands as the main driver shaping early snow timing this season. Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures already exceed +2.8°C in key regions, shifting the jet stream and storm tracks in ways that favor earlier cold outbreaks and precipitation across parts of the northern Rockies, Plains, and Midwest while potentially delaying measurable snow farther south. Recent late-August dustings at high-elevation western sites provide climatological context but do not affect city-level resolution criteria, which typically require 0.1 inches at official NWS stations. Traders should monitor upcoming CPC seasonal outlooks, fall Arctic air intrusions, and the first significant cold front passages expected in October for cities like Chicago and New York.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年第一场雪
$12,090 交易量

纽约州布法罗,10月31日前
66%

科罗拉多州丹佛截至10月31日
81%

明尼阿波利斯,明尼苏达州到10月31日
56%

犹他州盐湖城截至10月31日
48%

波士顿,MA 11月15日前
69%

纽约布法罗在11月15日前
78%

芝加哥,伊利诺伊州 11月15日之前
78%

丹佛,科罗拉多州,11月15日前
62%

密歇根州底特律,截至11月15日
81%

印第安纳波利斯,11月15日前
91%

密苏里州堪萨斯城 11月15日前
50%

明尼阿波利斯,明尼苏达州,11月15日前
90%

宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡,11月15日之前
63%

盐湖城,犹他州,11月15日之前
79%

马萨诸塞州波士顿,截止11月30日
84%

纽约布法罗,截止11月30日
92%

芝加哥(伊利诺伊州)在11月30日前
78%

辛辛那提,OH 11月30日之前
83%

达拉斯,德克萨斯州,截止11月30日
38%

11月30日前丹佛,科罗拉多
99%

底特律,密歇根州 11月30日前
86%

印第安纳波利斯,IN 11月30日前
98%

堪萨斯城(密苏里州),11月30日前
73%

明尼阿波利斯,明尼苏达州到11月30日
94%

田纳西州纳什维尔 11月30日前
29%

纽约市,11月30日前
68%

宾夕法尼亚州费城,11月30日前
88%

宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡截至11月30日
77%

盐湖城,犹他州,11月30日前
85%

密苏里州圣路易斯,截至11月30日
75%

华盛顿特区,截止11月30日
43%
$12,090 交易量

纽约州布法罗,10月31日前
66%

科罗拉多州丹佛截至10月31日
81%

明尼阿波利斯,明尼苏达州到10月31日
56%

犹他州盐湖城截至10月31日
48%

波士顿,MA 11月15日前
69%

纽约布法罗在11月15日前
78%

芝加哥,伊利诺伊州 11月15日之前
78%

丹佛,科罗拉多州,11月15日前
62%

密歇根州底特律,截至11月15日
81%

印第安纳波利斯,11月15日前
91%

密苏里州堪萨斯城 11月15日前
50%

明尼阿波利斯,明尼苏达州,11月15日前
90%

宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡,11月15日之前
63%

盐湖城,犹他州,11月15日之前
79%

马萨诸塞州波士顿,截止11月30日
84%

纽约布法罗,截止11月30日
92%

芝加哥(伊利诺伊州)在11月30日前
78%

辛辛那提,OH 11月30日之前
83%

达拉斯,德克萨斯州,截止11月30日
38%

11月30日前丹佛,科罗拉多
99%

底特律,密歇根州 11月30日前
86%

印第安纳波利斯,IN 11月30日前
98%

堪萨斯城(密苏里州),11月30日前
73%

明尼阿波利斯,明尼苏达州到11月30日
94%

田纳西州纳什维尔 11月30日前
29%

纽约市,11月30日前
68%

宾夕法尼亚州费城,11月30日前
88%

宾夕法尼亚州匹兹堡截至11月30日
77%

盐湖城,犹他州,11月30日前
85%

密苏里州圣路易斯,截至11月30日
75%

华盛顿特区,截止11月30日
43%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KIND (midnight to midnight local time, America/Indiana/Indianapolis).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KIND, issued as product CLIIND. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIIND.
市场开放时间: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KIND (midnight to midnight local time, America/Indiana/Indianapolis).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KIND, issued as product CLIIND. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIIND.
A developing strong El Niño, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issuing an advisory and projecting greater than 90% odds of a very strong event through winter 2026-27, stands as the main driver shaping early snow timing this season. Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures already exceed +2.8°C in key regions, shifting the jet stream and storm tracks in ways that favor earlier cold outbreaks and precipitation across parts of the northern Rockies, Plains, and Midwest while potentially delaying measurable snow farther south. Recent late-August dustings at high-elevation western sites provide climatological context but do not affect city-level resolution criteria, which typically require 0.1 inches at official NWS stations. Traders should monitor upcoming CPC seasonal outlooks, fall Arctic air intrusions, and the first significant cold front passages expected in October for cities like Chicago and New York.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于


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