**French legislative snap elections remain unlikely before year-end as attention centers on the scheduled April-May 2027 presidential contest.** President Macron holds constitutional authority to dissolve the National Assembly, yet current polling shows far-right leader Marine Le Pen leading first-round presidential preferences at 35-37 percent, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon positioned for a potential runoff matchup. Recent left-wing primaries selected Raphaël Glucksmann as the social-democratic candidate, while centrist figures like Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal compete amid internal divisions. Ongoing budget negotiations and deficit-reduction efforts have produced parliamentary friction but no dissolution signals. Traders price the probability of a call by December 31, 2026, at low single digits, reflecting the absence of acute triggers and the priority of the presidential timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于View resolved

警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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