Marine Le Pen leads trader consensus for the first-round winner at 86%, consistent with recent polling averages placing her at 34-36% amid a fragmented field, well ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 18-19% and trailing centrists or right-wing figures such as Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann, and Bruno Retailleau. A November 3-5 Harris Interactive survey across multiple candidate scenarios reinforced her position while showing Mélenchon qualifying for a potential runoff in every lineup tested, reflecting intensified polarization as President Macron’s term ends. Weak economic conditions and center erosion have boosted support for the Rassemblement National and La France Insoumise, with Le Pen’s eligibility confirmed after a reduced legal restriction. The April 2027 first-round date and pending Court of Cassation appeal remain key variables that could still shift probabilities.