The near-certain 96.4% market-implied probability against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic reflects persistently low global incidence and inefficient person-to-person transmission. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows only 229 confirmed cases across the Americas in 2025, with a May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship limited to roughly 10 cases and no sustained community spread afterward. Andes hantavirus remains the sole strain capable of limited human-to-human transmission, yet it requires prolonged close contact and shows no signs of enhanced transmissibility or geographic expansion in current monitoring. Historical patterns confirm hantaviruses primarily cause sporadic zoonotic spillovers from rodent reservoirs rather than pandemic-scale outbreaks, with no model consensus projecting widespread 2026 escalation absent major viral adaptation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年汉坦病毒大流行？
2026年汉坦病毒大流行？
是
4% 概率
$17,842,797 交易量
$17,842,797 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 概率
$17,842,797 交易量
$17,842,797 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The near-certain 96.4% market-implied probability against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic reflects persistently low global incidence and inefficient person-to-person transmission. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows only 229 confirmed cases across the Americas in 2025, with a May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship limited to roughly 10 cases and no sustained community spread afterward. Andes hantavirus remains the sole strain capable of limited human-to-human transmission, yet it requires prolonged close contact and shows no signs of enhanced transmissibility or geographic expansion in current monitoring. Historical patterns confirm hantaviruses primarily cause sporadic zoonotic spillovers from rodent reservoirs rather than pandemic-scale outbreaks, with no model consensus projecting widespread 2026 escalation absent major viral adaptation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
交易量
$17,842,797结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The near-certain 96.4% market-implied probability against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic reflects persistently low global incidence and inefficient person-to-person transmission. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows only 229 confirmed cases across the Americas in 2025, with a May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship limited to roughly 10 cases and no sustained community spread afterward. Andes hantavirus remains the sole strain capable of limited human-to-human transmission, yet it requires prolonged close contact and shows no signs of enhanced transmissibility or geographic expansion in current monitoring. Historical patterns confirm hantaviruses primarily cause sporadic zoonotic spillovers from rodent reservoirs rather than pandemic-scale outbreaks, with no model consensus projecting widespread 2026 escalation absent major viral adaptation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$17,842,797结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain 96.4% market-implied probability against a 2026 hantavirus pandemic reflects persistently low global incidence and inefficient person-to-person transmission. Official surveillance from WHO and CDC shows only 229 confirmed cases across the Americas in 2025, with a May 2026 Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship limited to roughly 10 cases and no sustained community spread afterward. Andes hantavirus remains the sole strain capable of limited human-to-human transmission, yet it requires prolonged close contact and shows no signs of enhanced transmissibility or geographic expansion in current monitoring. Historical patterns confirm hantaviruses primarily cause sporadic zoonotic spillovers from rodent reservoirs rather than pandemic-scale outbreaks, with no model consensus projecting widespread 2026 escalation absent major viral adaptation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题