xAI’s ongoing Grok iteration drives sentiment on whether any 2026 Grok model reaches higher Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) thresholds by year-end. As of late September 2026, Grok 4.6 and 4.7 post roughly 42.9–44% on standard HLE and AA-HLE leaderboards, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59–65%) and other frontier models. The September 21 release of Grok 4.7 delivered measurable gains on agentic and coding benchmarks, though HLE-specific results remain pending. Traders monitor xAI’s release cadence, tool-augmented evaluations, and compute scaling against competitors’ expected updates through December, with current gaps indicating that closing the distance to 50%+ would require sustained outperformance on this expert-authored, graduate-level benchmark.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$120,872 交易量
2026-12-31
45%及以上
80%
50%以上
48%
55%及以上
34%
60%及以上
20%
65%及以上
4%
$120,872 交易量
45%及以上
$44,780 交易量
80%
50%以上
$25,448 交易量
48%
55%及以上
$30,050 交易量
34%
60%及以上
$17,660 交易量
20%
65%及以上
$2,934 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".xAI’s ongoing Grok iteration drives sentiment on whether any 2026 Grok model reaches higher Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) thresholds by year-end. As of late September 2026, Grok 4.6 and 4.7 post roughly 42.9–44% on standard HLE and AA-HLE leaderboards, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59–65%) and other frontier models. The September 21 release of Grok 4.7 delivered measurable gains on agentic and coding benchmarks, though HLE-specific results remain pending. Traders monitor xAI’s release cadence, tool-augmented evaluations, and compute scaling against competitors’ expected updates through December, with current gaps indicating that closing the distance to 50%+ would require sustained outperformance on this expert-authored, graduate-level benchmark.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$120,872结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".xAI’s ongoing Grok iteration drives sentiment on whether any 2026 Grok model reaches higher Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) thresholds by year-end. As of late September 2026, Grok 4.6 and 4.7 post roughly 42.9–44% on standard HLE and AA-HLE leaderboards, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59–65%) and other frontier models. The September 21 release of Grok 4.7 delivered measurable gains on agentic and coding benchmarks, though HLE-specific results remain pending. Traders monitor xAI’s release cadence, tool-augmented evaluations, and compute scaling against competitors’ expected updates through December, with current gaps indicating that closing the distance to 50%+ would require sustained outperformance on this expert-authored, graduate-level benchmark.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$120,872结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETxAI’s ongoing Grok iteration drives sentiment on whether any 2026 Grok model reaches higher Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) thresholds by year-end. As of late September 2026, Grok 4.6 and 4.7 post roughly 42.9–44% on standard HLE and AA-HLE leaderboards, trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59–65%) and other frontier models. The September 21 release of Grok 4.7 delivered measurable gains on agentic and coding benchmarks, though HLE-specific results remain pending. Traders monitor xAI’s release cadence, tool-augmented evaluations, and compute scaling against competitors’ expected updates through December, with current gaps indicating that closing the distance to 50%+ would require sustained outperformance on this expert-authored, graduate-level benchmark.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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