Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly versions 1.1 and 1.3, has driven recent sentiment through strong results on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert benchmark spanning math, sciences, and reasoning. These models have posted scores in the high 40s to low 60s percent range across leaderboards, depending on evaluation protocols like tool use or extended reasoning, placing them close behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 and Google’s Gemini 3.x lines, combined with Meta’s emphasis on efficient inference and iterative releases, shapes trader views on whether further 2026 updates can close remaining gaps before year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$64,965 交易量
2026-12-31
55%+
33%
60%+
17%
65%+
17%
70%及以上
7%
$64,965 交易量
55%+
$41,025 交易量
33%
60%+
$13,616 交易量
17%
65%+
$8,437 交易量
17%
70%及以上
$1,887 交易量
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly versions 1.1 and 1.3, has driven recent sentiment through strong results on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert benchmark spanning math, sciences, and reasoning. These models have posted scores in the high 40s to low 60s percent range across leaderboards, depending on evaluation protocols like tool use or extended reasoning, placing them close behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 and Google’s Gemini 3.x lines, combined with Meta’s emphasis on efficient inference and iterative releases, shapes trader views on whether further 2026 updates can close remaining gaps before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
交易量
$64,965结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly versions 1.1 and 1.3, has driven recent sentiment through strong results on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert benchmark spanning math, sciences, and reasoning. These models have posted scores in the high 40s to low 60s percent range across leaderboards, depending on evaluation protocols like tool use or extended reasoning, placing them close behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 and Google’s Gemini 3.x lines, combined with Meta’s emphasis on efficient inference and iterative releases, shapes trader views on whether further 2026 updates can close remaining gaps before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$64,965结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETMeta’s Muse Spark series, particularly versions 1.1 and 1.3, has driven recent sentiment through strong results on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert benchmark spanning math, sciences, and reasoning. These models have posted scores in the high 40s to low 60s percent range across leaderboards, depending on evaluation protocols like tool use or extended reasoning, placing them close behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 and Google’s Gemini 3.x lines, combined with Meta’s emphasis on efficient inference and iterative releases, shapes trader views on whether further 2026 updates can close remaining gaps before year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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