Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly the 1.1 and 1.3 variants, has driven recent trader sentiment by posting HLE scores in the 49–62% range depending on evaluation protocols such as tool use or high-reasoning modes. These results place Meta within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 (around 59–65%) while surpassing several OpenAI GPT-5 configurations on certain leaderboards. Momentum stems from Meta’s scaled training infrastructure, iterative post-training on expert-level data, and adaptive reasoning techniques that have narrowed the gap faster than earlier Llama releases. With three months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution, key catalysts include any fall model drops, new HLE versions with held-out questions, and disclosed scaling gains that could push Meta’s peak result above 60% or higher.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$65,939 交易量
55%+
26%
60%+
17%
65%+
18%
70%及以上
7%
$65,939 交易量
55%+
26%
60%+
17%
65%+
18%
70%及以上
7%
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间: Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly the 1.1 and 1.3 variants, has driven recent trader sentiment by posting HLE scores in the 49–62% range depending on evaluation protocols such as tool use or high-reasoning modes. These results place Meta within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 (around 59–65%) while surpassing several OpenAI GPT-5 configurations on certain leaderboards. Momentum stems from Meta’s scaled training infrastructure, iterative post-training on expert-level data, and adaptive reasoning techniques that have narrowed the gap faster than earlier Llama releases. With three months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution, key catalysts include any fall model drops, new HLE versions with held-out questions, and disclosed scaling gains that could push Meta’s peak result above 60% or higher.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于



警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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