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icon for 2026年人类最后一次考试的最高分?

2026年人类最后一次考试的最高分?

icon for 2026年人类最后一次考试的最高分?

2026年人类最后一次考试的最高分?

$72,193 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$72,193 交易量

Polymarket

60%+

$41,225 交易量

52%

65%+

$16,633 交易量

29%

70%+

$6,485 交易量

14%

75%以上

$3,674 交易量

13%

80%以上

$1,710 交易量

7%

90%以上

$2,465 交易量

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards with scores of 59.1% on Artificial Analysis and up to 65% on other tracked evaluations as of mid-September 2026, ahead of other Claude variants, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at 54.7%, and Meta’s Muse Spark near 49-62%. HLE’s 2,500 expert-authored questions across mathematics, sciences, and humanities remain far from saturated, rewarding advances in multi-step reasoning and adaptive techniques that have driven rapid gains from single-digit results in early 2025. Major labs continue iterative releases and fine-tuning focused on reasoning effort, with potential year-end catalysts including new OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google models that could shift the frontier before December 31. Trader consensus reflects these verified capability gaps and the likelihood of further incremental progress.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$72,193
结束日期
2027-01-01
市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards with scores of 59.1% on Artificial Analysis and up to 65% on other tracked evaluations as of mid-September 2026, ahead of other Claude variants, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at 54.7%, and Meta’s Muse Spark near 49-62%. HLE’s 2,500 expert-authored questions across mathematics, sciences, and humanities remain far from saturated, rewarding advances in multi-step reasoning and adaptive techniques that have driven rapid gains from single-digit results in early 2025. Major labs continue iterative releases and fine-tuning focused on reasoning effort, with potential year-end catalysts including new OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google models that could shift the frontier before December 31. Trader consensus reflects these verified capability gaps and the likelihood of further incremental progress.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$72,193
结束日期
2027-01-01
市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET

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"2026年人类最后一次考试的最高分?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 6 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"60%+",概率为 52%,其次是"65%+",概率为 28%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 52¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 52%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"2026年人类最后一次考试的最高分?"已产生 $72.2K 的总交易量(自Jul 23, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年人类最后一次考试的最高分?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 6 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年人类最后一次考试的最高分?"的当前领先者是"60%+",概率为 52%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 52%。紧随其后的结果是"65%+",概率为 28%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年人类最后一次考试的最高分?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。