**Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65%** (text-only vs. tool-assisted runs), ahead of Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants and Meta’s Muse Spark series near 62%. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, designed to resist saturation, has seen frontier scores climb rapidly through 2026 via improved reasoning chains, extended context, and agentic tool use. OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and Google Gemini previews trail slightly on most independent evaluations. Traders are watching for further 2026 releases, potential HLE-Rolling updates, and whether any lab can push past the current 65% ceiling before year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$72,512 交易量
2026-12-31
60%+
41%
65%+
29%
70%+
14%
75%以上
13%
80%以上
7%
90%以上
5%
$72,512 交易量
60%+
$41,544 交易量
41%
65%+
$16,633 交易量
29%
70%+
$6,485 交易量
14%
75%以上
$3,674 交易量
13%
80%以上
$1,710 交易量
7%
90%以上
$2,465 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65%** (text-only vs. tool-assisted runs), ahead of Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants and Meta’s Muse Spark series near 62%. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, designed to resist saturation, has seen frontier scores climb rapidly through 2026 via improved reasoning chains, extended context, and agentic tool use. OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and Google Gemini previews trail slightly on most independent evaluations. Traders are watching for further 2026 releases, potential HLE-Rolling updates, and whether any lab can push past the current 65% ceiling before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
交易量
$72,512结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65%** (text-only vs. tool-assisted runs), ahead of Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants and Meta’s Muse Spark series near 62%. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, designed to resist saturation, has seen frontier scores climb rapidly through 2026 via improved reasoning chains, extended context, and agentic tool use. OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and Google Gemini previews trail slightly on most independent evaluations. Traders are watching for further 2026 releases, potential HLE-Rolling updates, and whether any lab can push past the current 65% ceiling before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$72,512结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET**Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards at 59–65%** (text-only vs. tool-assisted runs), ahead of Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 variants and Meta’s Muse Spark series near 62%. The 2,500-question expert benchmark, designed to resist saturation, has seen frontier scores climb rapidly through 2026 via improved reasoning chains, extended context, and agentic tool use. OpenAI GPT-6 Astra and Google Gemini previews trail slightly on most independent evaluations. Traders are watching for further 2026 releases, potential HLE-Rolling updates, and whether any lab can push past the current 65% ceiling before year-end resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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