Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards with scores of 59.1% on Artificial Analysis and up to 65% on other tracked evaluations as of mid-September 2026, ahead of other Claude variants, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at 54.7%, and Meta’s Muse Spark near 49-62%. HLE’s 2,500 expert-authored questions across mathematics, sciences, and humanities remain far from saturated, rewarding advances in multi-step reasoning and adaptive techniques that have driven rapid gains from single-digit results in early 2025. Major labs continue iterative releases and fine-tuning focused on reasoning effort, with potential year-end catalysts including new OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google models that could shift the frontier before December 31. Trader consensus reflects these verified capability gaps and the likelihood of further incremental progress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$72,193 交易量
2026-12-31
60%+
52%
65%+
29%
70%+
14%
75%以上
13%
80%以上
7%
90%以上
5%
$72,193 交易量
60%+
$41,225 交易量
52%
65%+
$16,633 交易量
29%
70%+
$6,485 交易量
14%
75%以上
$3,674 交易量
13%
80%以上
$1,710 交易量
7%
90%以上
$2,465 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards with scores of 59.1% on Artificial Analysis and up to 65% on other tracked evaluations as of mid-September 2026, ahead of other Claude variants, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at 54.7%, and Meta’s Muse Spark near 49-62%. HLE’s 2,500 expert-authored questions across mathematics, sciences, and humanities remain far from saturated, rewarding advances in multi-step reasoning and adaptive techniques that have driven rapid gains from single-digit results in early 2025. Major labs continue iterative releases and fine-tuning focused on reasoning effort, with potential year-end catalysts including new OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google models that could shift the frontier before December 31. Trader consensus reflects these verified capability gaps and the likelihood of further incremental progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
交易量
$72,193结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards with scores of 59.1% on Artificial Analysis and up to 65% on other tracked evaluations as of mid-September 2026, ahead of other Claude variants, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at 54.7%, and Meta’s Muse Spark near 49-62%. HLE’s 2,500 expert-authored questions across mathematics, sciences, and humanities remain far from saturated, rewarding advances in multi-step reasoning and adaptive techniques that have driven rapid gains from single-digit results in early 2025. Major labs continue iterative releases and fine-tuning focused on reasoning effort, with potential year-end catalysts including new OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google models that could shift the frontier before December 31. Trader consensus reflects these verified capability gaps and the likelihood of further incremental progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$72,193结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETAnthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) leaderboards with scores of 59.1% on Artificial Analysis and up to 65% on other tracked evaluations as of mid-September 2026, ahead of other Claude variants, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at 54.7%, and Meta’s Muse Spark near 49-62%. HLE’s 2,500 expert-authored questions across mathematics, sciences, and humanities remain far from saturated, rewarding advances in multi-step reasoning and adaptive techniques that have driven rapid gains from single-digit results in early 2025. Major labs continue iterative releases and fine-tuning focused on reasoning effort, with potential year-end catalysts including new OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google models that could shift the frontier before December 31. Trader consensus reflects these verified capability gaps and the likelihood of further incremental progress.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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