A strong El Niño event, already classified as very strong by NOAA with high odds of becoming historic, is the dominant driver elevating trader expectations for record sea levels at the San Diego tide gauge this winter. Kelvin waves and associated thermal expansion from anomalously warm Pacific waters are currently adding roughly 6–12 inches or more to baseline levels, compounding long-term rise and seasonal king tides peaking November through January. NOAA tide station 9410170 data, Scripps observations, and model consensus highlight how these factors stack with potential storm surges to push extremes above the 2015 benchmark of 2.51 feet above MHHW. Traders monitor upcoming NOAA Climate Prediction Center updates, weekly tide forecasts, and real-time gauge readings for confirmation of new maxima amid forecast uncertainty in exact storm timing and wave amplification.