Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island and the surrounding Strait of Hormuz through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, coastal defenses, and a network of seven strategic islands that form a defensive line for monitoring and regulating maritime traffic. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert sole administrative authority over the waterway, rejecting alternative routes and demanding recognition from Oman and other littoral states via ongoing talks tied to a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum. Recent ship attacks and Iranian warnings against non-compliant vessels in the strait underscore Tehran's enforcement efforts amid a broader US naval blockade and intermittent strikes. No verified military actions have altered Iranian sovereignty over the island itself, though sustained regional escalation or successful external intervention could introduce uncertainty within the market's resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$71,211 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
1%
$71,211 交易量
9月30日
$933 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island and the surrounding Strait of Hormuz through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, coastal defenses, and a network of seven strategic islands that form a defensive line for monitoring and regulating maritime traffic. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert sole administrative authority over the waterway, rejecting alternative routes and demanding recognition from Oman and other littoral states via ongoing talks tied to a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum. Recent ship attacks and Iranian warnings against non-compliant vessels in the strait underscore Tehran's enforcement efforts amid a broader US naval blockade and intermittent strikes. No verified military actions have altered Iranian sovereignty over the island itself, though sustained regional escalation or successful external intervention could introduce uncertainty within the market's resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
交易量
$71,211结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island and the surrounding Strait of Hormuz through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, coastal defenses, and a network of seven strategic islands that form a defensive line for monitoring and regulating maritime traffic. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert sole administrative authority over the waterway, rejecting alternative routes and demanding recognition from Oman and other littoral states via ongoing talks tied to a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum. Recent ship attacks and Iranian warnings against non-compliant vessels in the strait underscore Tehran's enforcement efforts amid a broader US naval blockade and intermittent strikes. No verified military actions have altered Iranian sovereignty over the island itself, though sustained regional escalation or successful external intervention could introduce uncertainty within the market's resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$71,211结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETIran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island and the surrounding Strait of Hormuz through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, coastal defenses, and a network of seven strategic islands that form a defensive line for monitoring and regulating maritime traffic. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert sole administrative authority over the waterway, rejecting alternative routes and demanding recognition from Oman and other littoral states via ongoing talks tied to a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum. Recent ship attacks and Iranian warnings against non-compliant vessels in the strait underscore Tehran's enforcement efforts amid a broader US naval blockade and intermittent strikes. No verified military actions have altered Iranian sovereignty over the island itself, though sustained regional escalation or successful external intervention could introduce uncertainty within the market's resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题