The recent weak September jobs report, showing just 29,000 nonfarm payrolls against expectations of 84,000, has emerged as the dominant driver pulling the 2-year Treasury yield down to 4.78–4.83% in early October, with markets now pricing only about a 20% chance of a Fed rate hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson have signaled limited urgency for further tightening after the September 25-basis-point increase, while softer labor data and revised inflation readings have tempered expectations for additional hikes this year. The 2-year yield remains sensitive to incoming CPI, PCE, and employment figures as well as any hawkish surprises in upcoming FOMC minutes, with traders monitoring whether persistent services inflation could still support a December move.