Arizona’s nine House districts feature three seats rated safe or solid Democratic and four safe Republican in nonpartisan forecasts, leaving AZ-1 and AZ-6 as the primary battlegrounds. The open AZ-1, vacated by Republican David Schweikert, pits Democrat Amish Shah against Republican Jay Feely in a toss-up rated Lean Democratic by some analysts after Shah’s July primary win. AZ-6 pits Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani against Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in another toss-up or Lean Republican contest. National midterm dynamics viewed as a referendum on the Trump administration, combined with Democratic advantages in fundraising and suburban turnout trends, support trader consensus around five Democratic seats as the most probable outcome, with four or six remaining plausible depending on late-cycle shifts in these two districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5 62%
6 16%
4 14.9%
3 5.8%
$21,505 交易量
$21,505 交易量
2026-11-02
少于3个
<1%
3
6%
4
15%
5
62%
6
16%
7+
1%
5 62%
6 16%
4 14.9%
3 5.8%
$21,505 交易量
$21,505 交易量
2026-11-02
少于3个
$1,316 交易量
<1%
3
$6,392 交易量
6%
4
$5,293 交易量
15%
5
$5,540 交易量
62%
6
$1,927 交易量
16%
7+
$1,038 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Arizona’s nine House districts feature three seats rated safe or solid Democratic and four safe Republican in nonpartisan forecasts, leaving AZ-1 and AZ-6 as the primary battlegrounds. The open AZ-1, vacated by Republican David Schweikert, pits Democrat Amish Shah against Republican Jay Feely in a toss-up rated Lean Democratic by some analysts after Shah’s July primary win. AZ-6 pits Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani against Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in another toss-up or Lean Republican contest. National midterm dynamics viewed as a referendum on the Trump administration, combined with Democratic advantages in fundraising and suburban turnout trends, support trader consensus around five Democratic seats as the most probable outcome, with four or six remaining plausible depending on late-cycle shifts in these two districts.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ET
交易量
$21,505结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Arizona’s nine House districts feature three seats rated safe or solid Democratic and four safe Republican in nonpartisan forecasts, leaving AZ-1 and AZ-6 as the primary battlegrounds. The open AZ-1, vacated by Republican David Schweikert, pits Democrat Amish Shah against Republican Jay Feely in a toss-up rated Lean Democratic by some analysts after Shah’s July primary win. AZ-6 pits Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani against Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in another toss-up or Lean Republican contest. National midterm dynamics viewed as a referendum on the Trump administration, combined with Democratic advantages in fundraising and suburban turnout trends, support trader consensus around five Democratic seats as the most probable outcome, with four or six remaining plausible depending on late-cycle shifts in these two districts.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$21,505结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETArizona’s nine House districts feature three seats rated safe or solid Democratic and four safe Republican in nonpartisan forecasts, leaving AZ-1 and AZ-6 as the primary battlegrounds. The open AZ-1, vacated by Republican David Schweikert, pits Democrat Amish Shah against Republican Jay Feely in a toss-up rated Lean Democratic by some analysts after Shah’s July primary win. AZ-6 pits Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani against Democrat JoAnna Mendoza in another toss-up or Lean Republican contest. National midterm dynamics viewed as a referendum on the Trump administration, combined with Democratic advantages in fundraising and suburban turnout trends, support trader consensus around five Democratic seats as the most probable outcome, with four or six remaining plausible depending on late-cycle shifts in these two districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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