Strong El Niño conditions, the most intense in modern records for this point in the season, have generated persistent high wind shear and dry, stable air across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing intensification. As of September 18, 2026, the basin has produced only five short-lived tropical storms and zero hurricanes—the latest first-hurricane date in the satellite era and the lowest accumulated cyclone energy on record. NOAA’s August update narrowed expectations to 2–6 hurricanes for the full season, yet actual activity through the climatological peak remains far below that range. With limited weeks remaining before November 30 and no immediate development signals from National Hurricane Center guidance, trader consensus heavily favors 0–3 total hurricanes, reflecting both the observed suppression and the narrow window for late-season formation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年大西洋飓风季节将形成多少次飓风？
2026年大西洋飓风季节将形成多少次飓风？
1-3 61%
0 36%
4-6 3.9%
7+ <1%
$31,809 交易量
$31,809 交易量
2026-12-31
0
36%
1-3
61%
4-6
4%
7+
<1%
1-3 61%
0 36%
4-6 3.9%
7+ <1%
$31,809 交易量
$31,809 交易量
2026-12-31
0
$17,141 交易量
36%
1-3
$5,532 交易量
61%
4-6
$6,812 交易量
4%
7+
$2,324 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions, the most intense in modern records for this point in the season, have generated persistent high wind shear and dry, stable air across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing intensification. As of September 18, 2026, the basin has produced only five short-lived tropical storms and zero hurricanes—the latest first-hurricane date in the satellite era and the lowest accumulated cyclone energy on record. NOAA’s August update narrowed expectations to 2–6 hurricanes for the full season, yet actual activity through the climatological peak remains far below that range. With limited weeks remaining before November 30 and no immediate development signals from National Hurricane Center guidance, trader consensus heavily favors 0–3 total hurricanes, reflecting both the observed suppression and the narrow window for late-season formation.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
市场开放时间： Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
交易量
$31,809结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions, the most intense in modern records for this point in the season, have generated persistent high wind shear and dry, stable air across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing intensification. As of September 18, 2026, the basin has produced only five short-lived tropical storms and zero hurricanes—the latest first-hurricane date in the satellite era and the lowest accumulated cyclone energy on record. NOAA’s August update narrowed expectations to 2–6 hurricanes for the full season, yet actual activity through the climatological peak remains far below that range. With limited weeks remaining before November 30 and no immediate development signals from National Hurricane Center guidance, trader consensus heavily favors 0–3 total hurricanes, reflecting both the observed suppression and the narrow window for late-season formation.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
交易量
$31,809结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETStrong El Niño conditions, the most intense in modern records for this point in the season, have generated persistent high wind shear and dry, stable air across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing intensification. As of September 18, 2026, the basin has produced only five short-lived tropical storms and zero hurricanes—the latest first-hurricane date in the satellite era and the lowest accumulated cyclone energy on record. NOAA’s August update narrowed expectations to 2–6 hurricanes for the full season, yet actual activity through the climatological peak remains far below that range. With limited weeks remaining before November 30 and no immediate development signals from National Hurricane Center guidance, trader consensus heavily favors 0–3 total hurricanes, reflecting both the observed suppression and the narrow window for late-season formation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题