Illinois's 5th Congressional District carries a D+19 partisan voter index and delivered a 38-point Democratic margin in 2024, establishing a durable structural advantage that shapes trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote and faces Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November 3 general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Quigley's concurrent Chicago mayoral bid introduces some uncertainty around future vacancy timing but has not altered the general-election trajectory. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented swing in a district with consistent double-digit Democratic margins and limited GOP infrastructure.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,257 交易量
$25,257 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
96%
共和党
5%
$25,257 交易量
$25,257 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$8,961 交易量
96%
共和党
$16,296 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 5th Congressional District carries a D+19 partisan voter index and delivered a 38-point Democratic margin in 2024, establishing a durable structural advantage that shapes trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote and faces Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November 3 general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Quigley's concurrent Chicago mayoral bid introduces some uncertainty around future vacancy timing but has not altered the general-election trajectory. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented swing in a district with consistent double-digit Democratic margins and limited GOP infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$25,257结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 5th Congressional District carries a D+19 partisan voter index and delivered a 38-point Democratic margin in 2024, establishing a durable structural advantage that shapes trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote and faces Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November 3 general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Quigley's concurrent Chicago mayoral bid introduces some uncertainty around future vacancy timing but has not altered the general-election trajectory. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented swing in a district with consistent double-digit Democratic margins and limited GOP infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$25,257结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETIllinois's 5th Congressional District carries a D+19 partisan voter index and delivered a 38-point Democratic margin in 2024, establishing a durable structural advantage that shapes trader consensus. Incumbent Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote and faces Republican nominee Tom Hanson in the November 3 general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Quigley's concurrent Chicago mayoral bid introduces some uncertainty around future vacancy timing but has not altered the general-election trajectory. A Republican upset would require an unprecedented swing in a district with consistent double-digit Democratic margins and limited GOP infrastructure.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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